Abbott Holds Lead in Texas Governor Race

Governor Greg Abbott of Texas leads Democratic Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the upcoming gubernatorial election. This information comes from a new poll released three months before voters decide if Abbott continues as governor or if Texas elects a Democratic governor for the first time since Ann Richards in 1990.

Democrats have consistently tried to gain ground in Texas, which has supported Republican presidential candidates since 1980. The party sees a potential opportunity as Trump’s national approval ratings decline, allowing them to contest more effectively in conservative states like Texas. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, indicated that polling is currently more favorable for Democrats compared to 2022 or 2024.

Polling is tighter overall and better demographically for Democrats than in 2022 or 2024,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek.

Despite their historical dominance, Republicans acknowledge changes in Texas’s political dynamics since past gubernatorial races. Mark Jones, a professor at Rice University, noted differences from the 2022 race, mentioning that Abbott then benefited from anti-Biden sentiment, whereas the current race sees him facing challenges associated with Trump. Yet, some believe the Democratic candidate for 2026, Hinojosa, lacks the recognition and resources that the 2022 candidate, Beto O’Rourke, had.

As Abbott strives to secure his position, Texas remains a conservative state that leans Republican. According to Mark Jones, candidates like Abbott, who maintain strong support among GOP voters, are strategically positioned for success in upcoming elections.

Poll Results

A late July poll by Texas Southern University surveyed 1,200 likely voters. Findings show Abbott with 49% support to Hinojosa’s 43%, while 5% remain undecided, and 3% back Libertarian Pat Dixon. Abbott is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 51%, whereas Hinojosa has a 37% favorable rating but faces recognition challenges, with most voters unfamiliar with her.

The poll illustrates demographic divisions in voter preferences. Abbott leads among white voters by 24 points, while Hinojosa leads among Latino and Black voters by 14 and 59 points, respectively. She also leads among women by 11 points, though Abbott leads among men by 24 points.

The Texas governor’s race is among 36 gubernatorial races in 2026. Having been elected in 2014, Abbott seeks his fourth term, aiming to surpass Rick Perry as the longest-serving Texas governor.

Hinojosa’s Prospects

Hinojosa entered the political scene in 2017 and secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026. Political analysts view Abbott as the frontrunner, but emerging polls suggest the race could be tighter than his previous 11-point victory against O’Rourke in 2022.

Political strategist Calvin Jillson from Southern Methodist University suggested that while Hinojosa lacks O’Rourke’s recognition and financial backing, the political atmosphere might be more supportive for Democrats in 2026. Jillson noted potential GOP defections could narrow Abbott’s lead.

The governor’s race parallels a closely watched Senate campaign. Here, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico appear evenly matched in polls. Democrats aim to gain Senate seats by flipping four Republican seats, with Texas as a target.

Influence of the Senate Race

Polls highlight intertwined dynamics between governor and Senate races. Among Abbott’s supporters, 89% also back Paxton. Conversely, almost all Hinojosa’s supporters back Talarico. Calvin Jillson stresses the importance of distinguishing voter dissatisfaction with Paxton’s party affiliation rather than personal controversies.

Additional Poll Data

Various polls depict a competitive race. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Abbott ahead by 3 points, while a New York Times/Siena College poll indicated a 7-point Abbott lead. A University of Texas poll had him leading by 7 points, revealing a closer race but with Abbott maintaining the lead.

Abbott’s Financial Edge

Abbott’s financial advantage and name recognition enhance his campaign. With $106 million on hand, his campaign has spent over $54.5 million in this cycle, leaving him well-resourced. Although Hinojosa faces financial constraints, shared funding from high-profile races aids Democrat campaigns.

Texans will soon decide whether Abbott retains the governorship or if Texas welcomes a Democratic leader for the first time in over 30 years.