Baltimore’s Strategy for Reducing Violence Shows Success
Five years ago, Baltimore faced over 300 homicides annually. Today, both homicides and nonfatal shootings have dropped by about 60%. Since September 2022, Baltimore’s homicide rate has steadily decreased, with just 133 homicides recorded in 2025, the lowest in nearly 50 years. A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that Baltimore’s reductions surpassed trends in other cities by roughly 25%, achieved without a rise in arrests.
Baltimore’s change did not occur by chance or quickly. The shift moved away from the previous strategy of heavy arrests. At its peak of zero-tolerance policing, Baltimore had up to 100,000 arrests annually in a city of about 600,000. This approach eroded trust in the government and did not effectively reduce violence. Though arrests, prosecutions, and incarceration play a role in public safety, aggressive enforcement without focus harmed non-white communities and lacked measurable impact on violent crime.
In 2022, Baltimore decided to alter this approach by prioritizing violence reduction. The focus was on an evidence-backed fact: violence is concentrated among a small number of people, places, and conflicts. Data revealed that fewer than 2% of residents were linked to groups responsible for up to 75% of violent acts. This informed the city’s strategy, emphasizing targeted efforts towards those most involved in violence.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy uses in-person outreach led by community leaders. The message is straightforward—help is available, but continued violence will result in focused consequences. Those who accept support receive life coaching, job training, education, housing, and, when necessary, relocation. Persistent offenders face accountability from police and justice partners.
Baltimore also developed a service infrastructure to engage those previously recognized only through enforcement. This focus and support combined with accountability yielded significant outcomes. In the Western District, where the strategy began, homicides and nonfatal shootings fell by roughly one-third in 18 months, without displacement to other areas or an increase in minor arrests. Among those who accepted support, over 94% have not been victimized again.
Earlier attempts to implement similar strategies failed due to poor execution, not flawed strategy. This time, the approach was deliberate. A five-year timeline was set, starting in the historically violent Western District and expanding to other districts only when prepared. Though some wanted quicker results, the goal was effective action over popularity.
Violence reduction demands careful management and collaboration. Weekly, police, prosecutors, outreach workers, service providers, community partners, and city agencies review incidents, identify risks, and coordinate responses. Community input shaped the strategy since local perspectives often offer the best solutions. Research from other cities supports that focused, partnership-based strategies can work when managed well and sustained beyond election cycles.
The aim was always to reduce violence while minimizing broader community harm. This involved balancing accountability with genuine support and focusing enforcement on a small group of perpetrators rather than entire neighborhoods. Community voices were central to the process.
This effort’s impact is evident citywide: families feel safer, young people are supported toward their potential, and new businesses are emerging on revitalized streets. Though work remains, Baltimore’s progress underscores that governments can tackle tough challenges by staying focused, following evidence, and creating partnerships that align values with tangible outcomes. The broader lesson from Baltimore is that cities need not decide between accountability and support. With dedication, they can offer both.
Brandon M. Scott is Baltimore’s 52nd mayor, known for reducing violence while investing in education, recreation, and affordable housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., is the Jerry Lee Professor of Criminology and Director of the Crime and Justice Policy Lab at the University of Pennsylvania.