Changes in College Admissions: Analyzing the Impact of Race-Conscious Policies

This fall, colleges welcomed their third class since the Supreme Court ended race-conscious admissions policies. As the effects of this decision emerge, understanding the changing landscape becomes challenging. National research shows the proportion of first-year students with unknown race or ethnicity rose from 3.3 percent to 4 percent in 2024, with higher increases at Ivy Plus institutions and Historically Black Colleges and Universities. This modest overall increase complicates our grasp on whether educational opportunities are expanding or contracting.

The public discussion often centers on enrollment shifts at selective colleges. The Lumina Foundation, in partnership with admissions researcher James Murphy of Class Action, released two reports this year to broaden our perspective on higher education trends. The first report traced enrollment changes across over 3,000 institutions. The second, released in June, focused on the rise in first-year students with unknown race or ethnicity.

Murphy analyzed federal data from more than 3,000 institutions and over 3.5 million first-time enrollments, comparing the 2024 class to the 2022 and 2023 averages. Underrepresented student attendance at Ivy Plus institutions fell by 4.33 percentage points, nearly 19 percent. Black enrollment declined by 25 percent, and Hispanic enrollment fell by around 15 percent. Conversely, state flagship universities experienced an 8 percent increase in enrollment among underrepresented students of color. White and Asian American enrollment held steady across most institutions, though Asian American numbers rose at Ivy Plus schools.

Murphy described these trends as a “cascade effect,” where decreases at selective institutions occur alongside increases at less selective schools. While the data don’t reveal individual students’ past enrollment decisions, they raise a key question: If qualified students attend institutions with lower completion rates or weaker post-graduation earnings, how will this affect their long-term outcomes?

“Known Unknowns” shifts focus from student enrollment locations to clear identification of enrolled students. Across all institutions, first-year students with unknown race rose from 3.3 percent to 4 percent in 2024. Despite this, over 95 percent of students still reported race or ethnicity, with uneven increases. Non-reporting at Ivy Plus schools rose from 3.2 percent to 5.8 percent; at Historically Black Colleges and Universities, it increased from 3.2 percent to 4.9 percent. Public four-year institutions and flagships exhibited minimal changes. Only about 25 percent of institutions experienced a non-reporting increase exceeding 1 percentage point.

The report analyzed data from 115 colleges and universities regarding applications, admissions, and enrollment. Non-reporting among applicants increased by 0.7 percentage points, mirroring national enrollment trends. Within this smaller group, less selective institutions showed the highest non-reporting rates and largest increases post-ruling. Notably, non-reporting students were admitted at slightly higher rates than the overall applicant pool, resisting straightforward explanations.

Some students might avoid reporting their race, believing it advantageous. Others might misunderstand what the ruling permits or feel uncertain about colleges’ use of their data. The “unknown” category may involve changing identities, limited offered categories, or reporting errors. The report found little correlation between increased non-reporting and shifts in enrollment by racial or ethnic group, precluding assumptions about student identities or using the “unknown” category to revise group numbers.

The Hechinger Report examined admissions essays post-ruling, offering insight into student navigation of changes. Some continued discussing race’s impact on their experiences, while others did not emphasize it. Though essays can’t fully explain increased unknowns, they illustrate students processing new signals on information disclosure.

Comprehensive understanding will require additional information. Examining shifts in access and resulting impacts on completion and economic mobility is vital. “Who enrolls, where, and who completes a credential” are critical to gauging the ruling’s long-term effects. Students, institutions, and support professionals are adapting to a changed admissions environment.

Guidance from the National Association for College Admission Counseling assists counselors and admissions professionals in understanding evolving practices and aiding informed student choices. Only one year of complete national post-ruling enrollment data is available. Upcoming federal admissions data might enable analysis of applications, admissions, and enrollment, though availability timing remains unclear.

As the school year progresses, another entering class contributes to the developing picture. Over the next few years, data will clarify whether current patterns are temporary or lasting, assessing whether student enrollment shifts impact college completion and subsequent economic opportunity.