Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu Compete in Tight New Hampshire Senate Race

The race for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu is tightening as midterm elections draw near, approximately four weeks away. Recent polling data from Rasmussen Reports reveals that 49 percent of likely voters support Pappas, while 44 percent favor Sununu. This marks a significant change from the previous month’s survey, where Pappas held a more substantial 11-point lead over Sununu, with 45 percent to 34 percent.

With Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement opening the seat for the upcoming general election, the Cook Political Report currently designates the race as a toss-up. Midterm elections often serve as an indicator of the political climate affecting the party in power, traditionally resulting in seat losses for the president’s party. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

Kamala Harris, the former Vice President, secured a narrow victory in New Hampshire over then-President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, winning by a margin of less than 3 percent. The state has not seen a Republican elected to the Senate for more than 15 years. Efforts to reach both Sununu and Pappas’ campaigns for comments have been made by Newsweek.

Understanding the New Poll

The new poll indicates that Sununu is gaining ground. Currently, 3 percent of voters support Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, while 4 percent remain undecided.

The poll shows Pappas has strong support among Democrats, with 89 percent of their vote, obtains 15 percent of Republican votes, and holds 40 percent of unaffiliated voters. Sununu, on the other hand, has 84 percent Republican backing, 8 percent Democratic support, and is favored by 44 percent of unaffiliated voters. Among female voters, Pappas leads with 53 percent compared to Sununu’s 33 percent. Conversely, among male voters, 53 percent support Sununu, while 42 percent favor Pappas.

Pappas, aged 46, demonstrates a strong lead among voters aged 65 and above, with 58 percent supporting him compared to Sununu, 62, who garners 39 percent. Sununu shows more appeal to voters under 40.

This poll was conducted between October 2 and October 4, surveying 979 likely New Hampshire voters. It has a margin of error of 3 percent. Rasmussen Reports, rated as “Lean Right” by AllSides for its alignment with conservative perspectives, conducted the poll.

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, noted the narrow path for Republicans in New Hampshire, highlighting Sununu’s chance to reduce Pappas’ lead. Agranoff mentioned the renowned Sununu name, potential ticket splitting, and external financial influences as factors providing the GOP with a viable opportunity in a state that often elects governors and senators from different parties. He emphasized that a 5-point deficit still signifies a competitive race, with the potential to impact the Senate control balance.

Agranoff further stated that maintaining Senate control is not solely about New Hampshire. Sununu needs to continue closing the gap to contribute to securing the majority. Should the lead stabilize at 5 points, it indicates a warning rather than a clear path forward.

Insights from Other Polls

Another survey from the University of New Hampshire reveals that 50 percent of respondents chose Pappas, while 42 percent support Sununu. The poll also shows 2 percent favor Laplante, while another 2 percent would write in a different candidate, and 4 percent remain undecided. Conducted from September 17 to September 21, this poll involved 1,418 likely voters in the general election and holds a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

An earlier survey in August found Sununu leading with 45 percent, compared to Pappas’ 43 percent, with 5 percent opting for another candidate and 7 percent undecided. Conducted from August 20 to August 24, this survey polled 1,878 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 2.3 percent. The results fell within the margin of error, thus representing a statistical tie.

A co/efficient poll from last month had both candidates locked at 46 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Pappas’ favorability stood at 37 percent, with a 51 percent unfavorable rating, while 13 percent had no opinion. Meanwhile, Sununu’s favorability was at 41 percent, with a 47 percent unfavorable score, and 12 percent undecided. This survey, conducted between September 9 and September 11, involved 958 likely voters in New Hampshire and had a margin of error of 3.15 percent.

Martyn, Newsweek’s AI assistant, helped compile this article with contributions from reporters and editors.