Cori Bush and Wesley Bell Contest Missouri Primary
Cori Bush, previously a Congress member aligned with the progressive group known as the “Squad,” is aiming for a political return in Missouri. She faces Representative Wesley Bell, who defeated her in a primary in 2024. Missouri voters will head to the polls on August 4 for the statewide primaries ahead of November’s midterm elections. St. Louis will serve as a significant testing ground for the progressive movement after several victories in cities like New York City, Philadelphia, and Denver.
Missouri’s 1st District: A Political Battleground
In Missouri’s 1st District, voters face a choice between Bell, a moderate, and Bush, a staunch progressive who served from 2021 to 2025. Bell, a local prosecutor, unseated Bush two years ago. The race saw significant outside spending, notably from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s United Democracy Project. Bell highlighted Bush’s vote against President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill in his campaign against her.
Progressives supporting Bush expect a shift in their favor since 2024. Increasing frustration among the Democratic electorate with the party’s response to President Donald Trump has led to a tendency to choose progressive candidates over long-standing incumbents in recent primaries. The upcoming primary will evaluate the Democratic electorate’s mood before the midterms.
Both the Bell and Bush campaigns received requests for comment from Newsweek.
Polling and Prediction Markets: A Snapshot
Polling in the district centered around St. Louis is sparse. A single public survey, Bush’s internal poll, indicates a slight lead for Bell. The HIT Strategies poll shows Bell with 44 percent support against Bush’s 40, with 17 percent undecided. Bush has a slight favorable lead, with 52 percent viewing her positively compared to 45 percent for Bell. This survey involved 401 likely Democratic primary voters from February 19-23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
Prediction markets currently favor Bell. Kalshi gives him a 59 percent chance of victory, and Bush stands at 40 percent. This marks a change from a month ago when Bush had a 53 percent chance against Bell’s 45.1. Polymarket estimates Bell’s chance of winning at 64 percent.
Prediction markets measure trader sentiment on political outcomes. Prices change based on polling, fundraising, candidate developments, and broader trends. While they show sentiment at a particular moment, they do not always predict future outcomes.
The district, one of the most Democratic in the nation, makes the primary winner the favorite for the November election. Trump lost the district by nearly 58 points in 2024.
Progressive Support for Cori Bush
Prominent progressive figures and organizations back Bush’s return attempt. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib, along with Justice Democrats, support her campaign. Bell has support from House leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries from New York. AIPAC again supports Bell, listing him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”
The 2024 Primary and Changing Dynamics
Bell’s 2024 win over Bush was one of the most financially competitive House primaries. AIPAC spent over $8 million to defeat Bush, opposed to U.S. military aid to Israel following an operation on Gaza after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Bush and Bowman, both progressives from the “squad,” lost primaries that year.
Bush has criticized Bell’s AIPAC support, as Democratic views on Israel have changed. In 2024, 58 percent favored Israelis, now reduced to 43 percent per a recent Pew Research Center poll. Favorabilities for the Israeli government also dropped from 24 percent in 2024 to 16 percent.
Bush’s campaign ad claims accomplishments in Congress include securing record funding, supporting housing stability, and opposing the genocide in Gaza. She portrayed herself as a fighter for rights and democracy.
Bell countered by questioning Bush’s candidacy seriousness. “I wake up every day working for St. Louis,” he stated, contrasting it with Bush’s motives.
Black Lives Matter Movement Experience
Both candidates have ties to the Black Lives Matter movement. Bush is an activist, and Bell served as a prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County and was on the Ferguson City Council.
Progressive Primary Victories
Progressives have achieved notable wins in midterm primaries. In New York, Claire Valdez secured an open seat, while incumbents like Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier won against established Democrats. In Colorado, Melat Kiros achieved victory over Diana DeGette. Other winners include Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, Adam Hamawy in New Jersey, and Frederick Haynes III in Texas, who are likely to win November elections, running in deeply Democratic districts.
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