Democrat Outraises GOP Nominee in Key Texas Areas

Traditionally Republican neighborhoods in Texas have shifted their financial support toward a Democrat in the upcoming Senate race. According to a report by The Houston Chronicle, James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the Senate, is outpacing the Republican nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, in fundraising efforts. This change is evident in ZIP codes that previously supported President Donald Trump.

Texas has become crucial in the fight to control the Senate. Democrats aim to win a Senate seat in Texas, a feat not accomplished since 1988. They are targeting Trump’s declining poll numbers to gain an advantage.

Breaking Down the Fundraising Numbers

University Park, a town in a district Trump won by over 5 points in 2024, saw Talarico raise $214,296 by June 30. This is more than 18 percent above Paxton’s total of $181,656 from the area. Across 11 ZIP codes in four metropolitan areas within Trump-won state House districts, Talarico secured about $1.3 million from individual donors compared to Paxton’s $422,000.

Significant gaps also appear in The Woodlands, north of Houston. Here, across four ZIP codes, Talarico raised $238,622 against Paxton’s $39,281. Specifically, ZIP code 77381 saw Talarico raising $98,103 compared to $19,247 for Paxton. In 77386, Talarico secured $68,076 against Paxton’s $4,476.

In West Houston’s 77024, Talarico raised $255,116, whereas Paxton brought in $60,643. The trend continued in 77079, with Talarico collecting $98,189 compared to $10,405 for Paxton.

The story is similar in the Katy and Richmond suburbs, where Talarico raised $152,557 compared to Paxton’s $50,228 across two ZIP codes.

Northern Dallas’s 75230 showed Paxton with $77,116, while Talarico amassed $270,286. In Highland Park, Paxton’s top ZIP code nationwide, he raised $211,701.

Democrat Making Inroads in GOP Territory

Analysis suggests that Talarico’s fundraising success in traditionally Republican areas is notable. In The Woodlands, inside House District 15, Trump won a significant 62.8 percent to 35.8 percent over Harris in 2024. Montgomery County largely supported Trump with 72 percent of the vote.

Memorial ZIP codes are mostly within House District 133, which Trump carried with 52.4 percent. The Katy and Richmond ZIP codes fall under House District 26, won by Trump with 56.3 percent.

Highland Park and University Park, within House District 108, had Trump leading with 51.7 percent against Harris’s 46 percent.

While Talarico has gained in GOP areas, his largest backing comes from places opposing Trump. In Austin’s 78746, Talarico raised $584,863 to Paxton’s $145,365. This area largely supported Harris with 69 percent of the vote. In Houston’s 77019, Talarico secured $429,975, a top result not matched by Paxton.

Paxton’s Fundraising Challenges

The disparity in fundraising didn’t occur overnight. Paxton’s numbers stalled as he battled Senator John Cornyn for the Republican nomination. Initially, Paxton raised $2.9 million in the second quarter of 2025, with incremental increases in subsequent quarters.

After winning the nomination against Cornyn, Paxton’s best fundraising quarter came from April to June 2026, yielding over $9 million.

Talarico entered the race in September 2025, quickly raising $6.2 million in three weeks. By mid-2026, his campaign had gathered $68.6 million, spending $47 million, with $21.5 million remaining. Conversely, Paxton’s committees reported $9.2 million raised, with $7.5 million spent and $1.76 million left.

Impacts of Trump on GOP Campaigns

Reports suggest Paxton attributes his poor fundraising partly to Trump. During a private fundraiser in Washington, Paxton allegedly blamed Trump’s Dallas convention in September for dropping his numbers. This claim comes from a recording obtained by The New York Times, with additional attendees corroborating Paxton’s presence and comments.

Campaign adviser Nick Maddux refuted claims of negative impacts, asserting Paxton led by three points in internal polls, with improvements since early September. Trump, conversely, claimed the Dallas event aided Paxton’s campaign.

Current Polling Landscape

Polls show Talarico leading narrowly in the Senate race. Out of eight September surveys, six showed Talarico ahead by one to six points. One poll was tied, while another indicated Paxton held a three-point lead.

A poll by Pulse Decision Science, sponsored by Paxton’s campaign, placed Paxton at 48 percent to Talarico’s 45 percent among 800 likely voters. Stratus Intelligence reported a 48-48 tie in another survey funded by Republican interests.

Nonpartisan polls favor Talarico. Marist University put Talarico ahead by six points. Emerson College showed him holding a 47 to 46 percent edge among likely voters.

Additional surveys indicated narrower leads. Slinghot Strategies reported Talarico leading by five points. Big Data Poll and the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found smaller margins. The Republican Trafalgar Group found Talarico leading by one point.