El Niño Predicted to Reach Exceptional Intensity, Impacting Weather Through 2027
El Niño is intensifying across the tropical Pacific, and forecasters warn of a potentially exceptional intensity influencing weather patterns into 2027. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reports a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter. Additionally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Niño to reach very strong intensity before peaking near the end of 2026.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring Pacific climate pattern known to affect global weather. Its counterpart, La Niña, signifies the cool phase. Typical effects of El Niño include stormier weather across the Southern U.S. and drier conditions in some northern areas. It also affects hurricane activity.
“Super El Niño” is not a formal NOAA classification but is used to describe an exceptionally strong event.
AccuWeather indicates the likelihood of this becoming the strongest El Niño since 1950. Meteorologist Alex DaSilva mentions a record El Niño could lead to the warmest global temperatures in 2027.
NOAA’s Forecast
In its August discussion, NOAA projected El Niño would keep strengthening through 2026, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. For the October to December period, there’s a 69% chance of a “historic” event surpassing past El Niños since 1950. However, NOAA cautions that anticipated effects are not guaranteed.
WMO Observations
The WMO confirms El Niño’s firm establishment and forecasts intensification into a very strong event soon. Their projections show nearly a 100% likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027. They warn of potential changes in rainfall, temperature patterns, and risks of floods, drought, and extreme heat.
WMO’s forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures for most land areas from September through November. However, they stress that El Niño’s strength does not solely determine its impact.
AccuWeather’s Insight
AccuWeather hurricane experts express high confidence in “Super El Niño” conditions developing during the second half of the Atlantic hurricane season. They predict the 2026-27 event could become the strongest since 1950. Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok emphasizes that the impacts are paramount, noting strong effects in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. For the U.S., AccuWeather forecasts an active southern storm track and above-average northern tier temperatures during fall.
AccuWeather alerts to persistent “extreme and exceptional” drought conditions in parts of the West. Meteorologist DaSilva explains, “The current El Niño is the strongest on record to date based on daily values. To declare it officially the strongest, it must strengthen and sustain for months.”