Governor’s Races in Nebraska and Kansas See Shift Toward Democrats

One week before the midterm elections, The Cook Political Report has altered its projections for two governor races, showing a shift in favor of Democrats in Nebraska and Kansas. These states were won by President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Nebraska and Kansas Projections

In Nebraska, the gubernatorial race has moved from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.’ In Kansas, the contest now stands at a ‘toss-up,’ according to the forecaster.

Midterm elections often reflect the current political climate for the party in power. Historically, the president’s party loses seats during these elections. This trend comes into focus as Trump’s approval ratings have dipped, influenced by issues such as the economy, immigration, and the ongoing war in Iran. Rising affordability concerns across American households have also impacted his ratings.

Republican nominee Ty Masterson and Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher are facing off in Kansas. In Nebraska, Republican incumbent Jim Pillen competes against Lynne Walz.

Kansas Governor’s Race

Trump claimed Kansas with 57.2% of the vote in the 2024 election, with Vice President Kamala Harris securing 41%. The shift in the Kansas gubernatorial race coincides with a more competitive U.S. Senate race between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall.

“Republicans are still optimistic about flipping this race, but the contest’s volatility warrants a more competitive assessment,” noted Cook’s report.

Masterson leads in most polls over Holscher, but Holscher expressed confidence, stating, “Despite over $20 million spent against us, the momentum is clearly on our side.”

Nebraska Governor’s Race

Trump won Nebraska with 59.3% of the vote, while Harris received 38.9%. In Nebraska, internal polls and a crowded ballot contribute to the race’s shift. Independent candidates Rick Beard and Brett Lindstrom are also in the mix.

Pillen holds a narrow lead in recent surveys and has Trump’s support. However, Cook highlights that third-party candidates might impact Pillen’s support.

Sophie Mestas, Walz’s spokesperson, said, “Nebraskans are ready for a governor who works for them.” Walz has built significant support statewide.

Democratic Seat Prospects

Cook estimates that Democrats could gain between two to four gubernatorial seats this cycle. Republicans have maintained a majority of governorships for about two decades, excluding a brief Democratic control from 2007 to 2011. Currently, each party holds 18 of the 36 state seats on the ballot next week.

Polling and Market Predictions

In Nebraska, a recent YouGov poll showed Walz with 43% against Pillen’s 44%, with 10% undecided. Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, heavily favor Pillen.

For Kansas, a YouGov poll puts Masterson at 47% and Holscher at 44%. Other polls show similar trends. On prediction markets, Masterson maintains a strong lead.