Impact of Trump’s IVF Affordability Efforts on US Fertility Rates

President Donald Trump’s initiatives to reduce the cost of in vitro fertilization (IVF) could lead to a significant rise in births within the United States. According to recent international research, this increase could involve tens of thousands of additional births annually. However, experts caution that such efforts alone may not be sufficient to reverse the broader decline in fertility rates across the country.

A study presented at the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology’s annual meeting found that reducing out-of-pocket IVF expenses by half could more than double the number of births achieved through assisted reproductive technology (ART). This could potentially result in approximately 140,000 to 160,000 additional births each year. While substantial, this figure would mitigate only a fractional portion of the ongoing decline in fertility rates.

Trump’s Initiatives on Fertility

Addressing America’s declining birth rate has been a key priority for Trump in his second term. In February 2025, he signed an executive order aimed at expanding access to IVF and slashing related costs. Currently, the price per IVF cycle ranges from $12,000 to $25,000, posing a significant barrier to prospective parents. The administration is also targeting fertility drug prices and exploring coverage options to further reduce treatment costs. Trump emphasized these efforts during a speech in October, promising substantial reductions in IVF-related expenses.

Affordability’s Role in IVF Births

The research highlights affordability’s critical role in accessing ART. Countries like Israel, Japan, Spain, and South Korea, where IVF costs are a smaller portion of household income, report higher ART birth rates. In contrast, the US generally sees these costs exceed 75% of household income, correlating with lower ART birth rates. For instance, IVF accounts for 2.5% of all births in the US compared to 9-12% in countries with lower cost burdens.

“Our data implies that roughly halving that cost burden could mean something like 160,000 additional American families having a child who otherwise couldn’t,” said Alan Murray, CEO of Conceivable Life Sciences.

Challenges in Addressing Fertility Decline

Despite potential gains in IVF-conceived births, experts warn against overestimating IVF’s impact on overall fertility rates. The US birth rate has fallen to 1.6 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This reflects a range of demographic, economic, and social changes, many of which are not directly addressed by increasing IVF accessibility.

Researcher Alison Gemmill notes that factors such as housing costs, child care, workplace flexibility, and economic conditions profoundly influence family formation decisions. These factors suggest that a comprehensive approach is necessary to address the broader fertility decline.

Broader Implications

A Pew Research study in 2023 found that 42% of people have used fertility treatments or know someone who has—a rise of nearly 10 points over five years. This spike indicates growing reliance on fertility treatments, despite the high costs. Addressing these affordability challenges could offer a significant impact for families facing infertility, yet broader demographic trends require multifaceted solutions.

Although Trump’s efforts to make IVF more affordable may show results, they highlight only part of the larger demographic issue that persists. Tackling the declining US birth rate will likely require addressing a wider variety of social and economic influences.