ISIS Rebuilding Amid U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq

The Islamic State (ISIS) is quietly rebuilding its presence as the United States prepares to withdraw its remaining troops from Iraq. This development raises concerns about the potential exploitation of a security vacuum by ISIS, according to a regional security expert.

With U.S. forces scheduled to leave by September 30, Iraq could face a more perilous period, reminiscent of when ISIS captured Mosul in 2014. Dr. Omar Mohammed, a counterterrorism expert with the George Washington University Program on Extremism, emphasized the threat ISIS poses by exploiting existing gaps. Mohammed stated, “ISIS has historically waited for these opportunities.”

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has committed to continuing efforts to disrupt ISIS networks and prevent their resurgence, despite the planned withdrawal. Mohammed stressed this is not about if U.S. forces will leave but what remnants will persist or develop once they do.

Mohammed explained a dynamic where militias claim to target ISIS to justify maintaining their arms. Meanwhile, ISIS capitalizes on grievances that these militias create. This interplay contributed to the deterioration of Mosul before its capture by ISIS in 2014.

ISIS overtook Mosul after years of preparation. Iraqi security forces collapsed, enabling ISIS to seize U.S.-made weapons and significant financial resources. This led to their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, proclaiming a caliphate. During ISIS rule, Mohammed secretly documented events through his blog “Mosul Eye,” providing crucial intelligence and insights to U.S. forces.

Iraqi forces, supported by a U.S.-led coalition, reclaimed Mosul in 2017. However, despite the official end of the U.S. combat mission in 2021, ISIS continues operations in some parts of Iraq and Syria.

Citing Iraqi intelligence, Mohammed noted the increase in ISIS fighters in Syria, rising from 2,000 to as many as 10,000. He highlighted the prominence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an integrated part of Iraq’s security forces, estimated at 238,000 members. Several factions within PMF have close ties to Iran, operating outside governmental control.

Tehran views Iraq’s situation as crucial, especially following U.S. strikes on its proxy networks. Iran’s influence is prioritized as part of its regional strategy.

Mohammed cautioned about neglecting the signs that allowed Mosul to fall in 2014. He warned that whether ISIS grows large enough to alarm Iran or remains just influential enough to serve its interests is a crucial question for the future.