James Talarico’s Remarkable Surge in Texas Senate Race

In a significant political shift, Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico experiences a substantial 28-point swing in vote share in the Texas State Senate District 9. This change contrasts sharply with former President Donald Trump’s performance in the district in 2024, according to a new private poll obtained by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report.

Signs of Republican Vulnerability

This development signals that Republicans are facing a potential loss in a Senate race in Texas, a scenario not seen since 1988. Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, contends against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn in a contentious primary battle, securing Trump’s endorsement.

Democrats aim for a majority in both House and Senate in November to significantly limit Trump’s legislative influence in the last two years of his second term.

Internal Poll Findings

“The Quorum Report published what it described as an internal Republican poll on Monday, showing Talarico leading with 52 percent in Texas State Senate District 9. Paxton trails with 41 percent, indicating an 11-point lead for Talarico.”

In the 2024 election, Trump outperformed his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris by 17 points in this district. The poll reflects a remarkable 28-point shift away from Republican preference. Texas State Senate District 9 encompasses parts of Tarrant County, including a significant section of Fort Worth.

This poll followed a major political upset in January when Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points in a special election, marking the first Democratic victory in the district since 1991.

Conducted with 600 likely voters between September 10 and September 15, the poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Quorum Report admitted an unusual move by publishing these results without disclosing polling methodology.

General Polling Trends

Recently, Talarico led Paxton across eight different polls. An Emerson College poll conducted from September 12 to September 14 showed Talarico marginally ahead at 47 percent versus Paxton’s 46 percent. A separate Siena College/ReconMR poll indicated Talarico leading with 49 percent to Paxton’s 43 percent.

Talarico has emerged as a favored candidate in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi assigns a 59 percent victory probability to Talarico, while Polymarket estimates a 62 percent chance, compared to Paxton’s 41 percent and 39 percent respective chances.

Both political camps are intensifying their fundraising efforts. Recent filings with the Federal Election Commission reveal Paxton’s reception of an additional $5 million from MAGA Inc., Trump’s principal political action committee.

Controversy Surrounding Paxton

Paxton remains a contentious figure, even within Texas Republican sectors. In 2023, he faced impeachment by the GOP-led Texas House for alleged misuse of power but was later acquitted by the state Senate.

Supported by a Trump endorsement, Paxton surpassed Cornyn in the May Republican primary. Cornyn had served in the Senate since 2002.