Moldova Faces Growing Pressure from Russia Amid Conflict in Ukraine

The former Soviet republic of Moldova is facing increased pressure from Russia as the war in Ukraine draws closer to its border. Moldova, celebrating 35 years of independence, is in a precarious position due to Russia’s aggressive actions.

Threats to Moldova and Ukraine

Stanislav Secrieru, national security advisor to Moldova’s President Maia Sandu, emphasized the threat posed by Russia’s recent attacks on infrastructure at the Ukrainian-Moldovan border, which endanger Ukraine’s economy and its access to European markets.

Secrieru noted, “In August, Russia targeted Ukraine’s border infrastructure along the Moldovan frontier.” This impacts grain exports from Ukraine via Black Sea ports, forcing Moldova to become a transit route for these exports to Romania’s ports, with transit tariffs halved to maintain movement.

Moldovan police recovered a Russian drone on November 25, 2025 as several drones flew over the airspace of the Republic of Moldova.

Russia’s Intimidation Tactics

These routes are vital for Ukraine’s exports and economic stability. Russia aims to disrupt them through strikes. Furthermore, Russia intensified violations of Moldova’s airspace in August to pressure Moldova into retracting support.

President Maia Sandu reported violations of airspace by Russian drones right before Moldova’s independence celebrations, calling it an “intimidation” attempt.

Since the conflict began in February 2022, Moldova has recorded many airspace violations, with Russian missiles and drones landing on its territory. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, visiting Chișinău, highlighted the shared struggles with Moldova against Russian threats.

President Zelenskyy addressed Independence Day attendees, saying, “Russia is doing much to ruin our lives in Ukraine, and yours in Moldova, making it hard for Romania as well. This is the ‘Russian world.’”

Path to EU Membership

Both Moldova and Ukraine applied for EU membership post-Russia’s invasion in 2022. However, Russian destabilization efforts complicate this path, as Moscow tries to deter former Soviet republics from aligning with the West and EU.

Russia’s threats to its neighbors coincided with a visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, increasing concerns that Russia may escalate tensions with NATO members, including Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Russia maintains around 1,500 troops in the breakaway territory of Transnistria, which split from Moldova after independence.

Russian influence operations and disinformation campaigns in Moldova fit Moscow’s broader strategy to test Europe’s response without triggering severe repercussions.

Research Fellow Ivana Stradner noted, “Russia interferes in Moldova as part of a step testing Europe’s tolerance.”

Moldova remains vulnerable to Russian influence, especially with troops stationed in Transnistria, a region that separated post-independence.

Implications for the Baltics

Eastern European countries are vigilant. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna warned, “Russia’s provocations against NATO must be taken seriously.”

Baltic leaders, including Latvia’s Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, expressed concern over potential Russian actions, although an invasion risk remains low.

Moldova has continuously aimed to integrate with Western institutions, with significant support evident in elections and a referendum on EU membership.