Moscow’s Gains Without Diesel Dollars
Moscow has yet to receive any U.S. dollars from President Donald Trump’s diesel agreement, yet Russian leader Vladimir Putin is already reaping benefits. On Friday, Trump announced an agreement with the Kremlin to ease sanctions in exchange for Russian diesel. This deal drew criticism from both parties in Washington and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Trump’s response worsened the situation. He stated that Ukraine needs a new leader able to negotiate, blaming Zelensky for ongoing war and high diesel prices in the U.S. For Putin, Trump’s statement provided valuable political leverage.
Elections Amid Martial Law
With Ukraine under martial law, elections remain prohibited, requiring more than a temporary ceasefire for credible voting. A September poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found 71% of Ukrainians opposed holding elections, with only 24% in favor during wartime.
Nonetheless, Zelensky showed willingness to uphold democracy under suitable conditions. He proposed to ABC News that Trump should negotiate a two-month ceasefire with Putin for elections to take place.
“If they want elections, a 60-day ceasefire is essential,” Zelensky suggested.
The Kremlin’s response came swiftly. Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, buoyed by Trump’s comments about Zelensky, dismissed the ceasefire as a strategy for Ukraine to recover and regroup. He assured that if elections were desired, Putin could ensure no attacks on election day.
Peskov’s remarks echoed Putin’s prior offer from December 2025, asserting without fear of repercussions that Ukraine hinders peace, a perspective now implicitly backed by the U.S. administration.
Divergent Narratives
In response, Peskov backed Trump’s call for new leadership in Ukraine, suggesting Zelensky lacked the resolve to end the conflict. Meanwhile, Trump maintained an energy truce despite evidence of ongoing hostilities.
A month ago, Trump claimed a truce over energy infrastructure, but shortly after, Russian missiles hit Ukrainian power stations while Kyiv drones targeted Russian refineries. This cycle repeated recently as Trump again asserted the truce’s existence, despite reports of Russian strikes following his announcement.
Despite apparent violations, Trump attributed accountability unevenly. He insisted Putin was more inclined to negotiate than Zelensky.
“Putin seems more open to an agreement than Zelensky,” Trump remarked.
Strain on U.S.-Ukraine Relations
Moscow capitalizes on Trump’s favorable stance, contrasting with Zelensky’s strained relationship with the White House. In February 2025, Zelensky endured criticism at the Oval Office from Trump and JD Vance, prompting Ukraine to repair ties with Washington.
Ukraine achieved progress with Trump, evidenced by his condemnation of Russian aggression and support for sanctions against Moscow through the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. Trump expressed discontent with Putin’s actions and reinforced support for Ukraine at international forums like the G7 summit.
However, recent developments jeopardize diplomatic achievements. Legal challenges from senators contest the diesel deal’s compliance with the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act. This law requires recognition of Ukraine’s sovereign governance choice before lifting the import ban.
Yet, Putin gains from this scenario, gaining a chance to promote Moscow’s narrative and increase pressure on Ukraine.