Old Farmer’s Almanac August Weather Outlook

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published its long-range weather forecast for August. This outlook suggests that the final month of meteorological summer may feature thunderstorms across extensive parts of the United States. It also indicates potential tropical storm or hurricane threats for several coastal and southern regions.

Long-Range Forecasting

As a long-range forecast, the Almanac highlights broad regional patterns rather than specific daily conditions. By dividing the United States into zones, it predicts whether temperatures and precipitation will trend above or below historical averages.

Almanac’s Accuracy

The Old Farmer’s Almanac asserts an 80% accuracy rate for its forecasts, acknowledging that no forecaster can achieve total accuracy. The publication generates long-range forecasts by analyzing solar patterns and comparing them with historical weather data, utilizing solar science, climatology, and meteorology.

Here’s a regional summary for August, according to the Almanac:

Northeast

In the Northeast, August will begin with scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions. Heavier rain will develop in the north from August 7 to 10, while the south will experience isolated showers and cooler weather. Sunny weather will follow, but expect more thunderstorms by midmonth. From August 19 to the end of the month, isolated thunderstorms and mild temperatures are forecasted. The expected average temperature is 67.5°F, with around four inches of precipitation.

Atlantic Corridor

Scattered thunderstorms will start the month. From August 1 to 14, sunny and warm weather is expected. A tropical storm threat is noted in the southern region for August 15 and 16, with the north remaining sunny and warm. The month’s second half trends sunny and warm before cooler conditions and isolated thunderstorms possibly appear in the south. The region is forecasted to have two inches of precipitation, which is two inches below average.

Appalachians

The Appalachians can expect isolated thunderstorms and warmth from August 1 to 12. Sunnier conditions take over from August 13 to 20. Near the end of the month, scattered thunderstorms return, with overall mild conditions. The forecasted average temperature is 71°F, slightly below average, with around 2.5 inches of precipitation.

Southeast

The Southeast forecast begins with scattered thunderstorms, transitioning to cooler conditions by August 11. From August 12 to 14, the west may experience isolated thunderstorms, while the east faces a hurricane threat. Showers and cooler weather are expected from August 15 to 23, followed by a mix of thunderstorms in the west and sunshine in the east.

Florida

Florida will start with isolated thunderstorms and warm conditions until August 9. A hurricane threat is noted from August 10 to 12, thereafter shifting to thunderstorms and mild weather until August 24. The final week sees sunshine in the north and thunderstorms in the south. Precipitation is forecasted at eight inches, with northern regions two inches below average and southern regions two inches above average.

Lower Great Lakes

Early August brings scattered thunderstorms to the Lower Great Lakes, followed by sunshine. Temperatures transition from warm to cooler by August 16. From August 17 to 25, more thunderstorms are anticipated with cool conditions warming later. Heavy rain is predicted in the east from August 26 to 28, with the west staying sunny. Sunshine and mild weather close the month.

Ohio Valley

August in the Ohio Valley will start sunny but transition into thunderstorms, with warm conditions through August 9. A sunny and mild spell follows from August 10 to 19. Thunderstorms return from August 20 to 28, with the month ending on a sunny and mild note. The anticipated average temperature is 72.5°F, with rain predicted to be one inch below average.

Deep South

The Deep South will start August with scattered thunderstorms. Conditions turn cooler by August 13. From August 14 to 21, the north will see sunny weather while the south experiences thunderstorms. From August 22 to 24, scattered thunderstorms may occur in the east, with a tropical storm threat in the west. The month ends with sunshine replacing thunderstorms.

Upper Midwest

In the Upper Midwest, isolated thunderstorms and warm weather will kick off the month. A sunny, warm period is forecast from August 8 to 12. From August 13 to 18, the east remains sunny while the west has isolated thunderstorms and high temperatures. More thunderstorms are expected from August 19 to 24 before ending the month with sunshine, showers, and cooling weather.

Heartland

The Heartland will see scattered thunderstorms in the north while the south remains sunny, with heat building through August 7. From August 8 to 15, expect sunny, warm conditions. A few thunderstorms are predicted during the warm phase from August 16 to 20. The month’s end will bring isolated thunderstorms. The average temperature is projected at 73°F, with rain totaling 4.5 inches.

Texas-Oklahoma

The Texas-Oklahoma region starts sunny before developing thunderstorms, with warm conditions in the north and hot weather in the south. From August 10 to 12, heavy thunderstorms are expected. Sunshine and isolated thunderstorms continue till August 22. A tropical storm threat is noted for August 23 to 25, ending with thunderstorms and warm conditions.

High Plains

Sunshine and heat are expected in the northern High Plains while the south experiences thunderstorms and cooler conditions at the start of August. A few thunderstorms and cool weather occur from August 6 to 10. Sunshine returns before isolated thunderstorms emerge from August 11 to 19, with hot weather from August 20 to 23. The month ends with sunshine, scattered thunderstorms, and warm weather.

Intermountain Region

August begins with sunshine and hot conditions in the north, with the south experiencing a few thunderstorms and warm weather in the Intermountain Region. Sunny, warm periods occur from August 12 to 15. From August 16 to 22, the north remains sunny and warm, while the south sees isolated thunderstorms and heat. This trend continues through month’s end.

Desert Southwest

The Desert Southwest’s August starts with scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions. From August 6 to 11, the east has thunderstorms, while the west remains sunny. Extended sunny days from August 12 to 23 are expected, with warm weather in the east and hotter conditions in the west. Isolated thunderstorms make a return from August 24 to 31.

Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Northwest will begin August sunny and hot before isolated thunderstorms give way to sunshine and warm conditions from August 6 to 21. From August 22 to 25, scattered showers and cooler weather are expected. The region’s end-of-month forecast is sunny and turning hot.

Pacific Southwest

In the Pacific Southwest, August is expected to stay mostly sunny. Early on, hot inland conditions and warm coastal weather prevail. From August 10 to 17, isolated sprinkles may occur in the north, with the south staying sunny. Hot conditions follow from August 18 to 21, ending with hot inland weather and cooler coastal areas. Precipitation is forecast at zero inches, meeting average expectations.

Alaska

Alaska beginning August sees showers in the north and central parts, with rain in the south, as cool conditions continue through August 15. From August 16 to 21, rains are expected in the Panhandle, with isolated showers in the east and west. From August 22 to 31, rain and snow are expected in the north, central areas stay sunny and warm, while the south has periods of rain.

Hawaii

Hawaii’s August outlook suggests scattered showers in the east and west with sunshine in central areas, continuing hot conditions through August 16. From August 17 to 31, showers affect central and western areas, but temperatures remain warm. Precipitation is forecast at 0.2 inches, 0.4 inches below average, with a temperature of 80.5°F, slightly below average.