Potential US-Iran Agreement to End Conflict and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

An emerging agreement between the United States and Iran might signal an end to the conflict and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the deal was “largely negotiated.” However, details regarding the agreement’s finalization and the implementation timeline remain unclear. Trump spoke after discussions with Middle Eastern allies, including a separate conversation with Israel. The information was provided by two regional officials and one U.S. official, who requested anonymity due to the delicate nature of the talks.

End of the Conflict

In the 12 weeks since the United States and Israel initiated the conflict with strikes on Iran, killing high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran has insisted on focusing any agreement on ending hostilities across all fronts. This includes Lebanon, where the Iran-backed political and military group Hezbollah has been engaged in combat with Israel since two days after the conflict began. A fragile ceasefire has held since April 7. The resolution of the conflict would alleviate regional concerns, as areas once considered safe, such as the United Arab Emirates, faced missile and drone attacks from Iran.

The plan would allow global maritime trade, including an estimated 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. It would also enable the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region. Both regional officials suggest the draft agreement includes ending the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, along with a commitment not to interfere in the internal affairs of regional countries, including Iran. This is crucial regarding Iran’s support for allied forces, such as Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq.

The United States desires that Israel can respond freely to perceived threats in Lebanon, whereas Iran opposes this stance, according to a regional official. The U.S. official stated that the agreement would ensure Israel’s right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian nuclear program, missile program, and support for allied armed forces were the stated reasons for U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yet, Tehran’s retaliatory control over the Strait of Hormuz quickly became a pressing global concern as hundreds of vessels carrying oil, gas, and other supplies were stranded. Under the forming agreement, the strait would gradually reopen in conjunction with the U.S. lifting the blockage of Iranian ports, which began on April 17, according to regional officials. The blockade has restricted Iran’s ability to export oil and access crucial economic funds. The U.S. would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions exemptions, one official informed about the negotiations said. Sanction relief and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds would be negotiated over a 60-day period, the official added.

Iran’s Nuclear Concessions

The Iranian nuclear program and international concerns about potential weapons development are at the heart of tensions. The U.S. and Israel considered complex military operations to destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium. Under the possible agreement, Iran would relinquish this uranium reserve, according to regional officials. A knowledgeable source indicated that the method of transferring Iran’s enriched uranium would be subject to further talks within the 60-day period. Part may be diluted, while the rest could be transferred to a third country, possibly Russia, which offered to receive it. A U.S. official confirmed the 60-day period and warned that if Iran does not relinquish its reserve, sanctions relief would not occur.

Iran possesses 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, technically close to the 90% level needed for weaponry-grade material, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran maintains that it has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology and asserts its program aims are peaceful. On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian assured state TV that Iran is ready “to assure the world that we are not seeking a nuclear weapon.” On social media, Trump said the U.S. relationship with Iran is becoming more professional and productive but emphasized they must not develop or acquire a nuclear bomb.

Unaddressed Issues

Some matters have yet to surface in the potential agreement’s descriptions, such as the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Iran’s missile program, a particular target for Israel, is another unmentioned issue. Although the U.S. and Israel began the conflict with the stated goal of inciting Iranian citizens to rise against their government after early-year protests, discussions on leadership changes in Tehran appear abandoned. Additionally, Iran’s previously raised objectives, including the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region and reparations for war damages, seem absent from current negotiations.