Severe El Niño Threatens Global Food Supply and Prices

One of the most severe El Niño events in recorded history is set to worsen global food insecurity and increase agricultural commodity prices worldwide. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, global food prices reached their peak since 2022 in August. This is due to the significant impacts of the record El Niño climate event that began earlier this year affecting major crop-producing nations.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, suggested that heat-related deaths could surpass 450,000 due to the widespread effects of El Niño. The resulting disruptions are threatening supplies in various regions, causing concern for those dependent on them.

Impact on Agricultural Production

Matin Qaim, a professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Bonn, highlighted that El Niño-related weather extremes would likely have the most significant impact on agricultural production in South and Southeast Asia and Western Africa. He expressed particular concern for impoverished populations who already spend a large portion of their income on food and will be further strained by rising prices.

Potential Price Increases

Experts have identified several food groups from regions predicted to suffer the severest El Niño effects—primarily in the Global South—that may experience shortages. Chocolate, olive oil, and coffee are among those expected to be less available and more costly for U.S. consumers.

“Chocolate and sugar move first, both sit on unusually thin global buffers this year, so it takes very little to push prices up,” said Kamiar Mohaddes, a professor of economics and policy at Cambridge University.

Mohaddes also mentioned wheat, which is nearing a 56-year low in production, and rice imports threatened by drought in India, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Amanda Maycock, a professor at the University of Leeds, noted that El Niño had reduced rainfall by 10 to 15 percent during the Indian monsoon, impacting rice production. She mentioned that other tropically grown items like coffee and cocoa could also suffer from crop destruction due to heavy rain and droughts.

Duration of Impact

Experts believe the U.S. will avoid the worst El Niño effects, particularly food shortages. Nelson Villoria, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, noted that while corn yields might decline, other states’ production will compensate. Despite possible import slowdowns, major food group shortages in the U.S. are unlikely.

Qaim indicated that many African and Asian countries rely on imported grains for food security. In these regions, hunger may increase as the climate event exacerbates existing supply issues due to blocked shipping routes in the Middle East. He predicted that price rises could last over an extended period, at least six to 12 months.

Mohaddes projected a ‘mid-teens percentage’ global food price increase, with effects persisting up to two years as the event builds to a peak around December 2026.

According to a Goldman Sachs analysis cited by The Guardian, this event might lead to an up to 16 percent increase in global food commodity prices, effects that may only be ‘fully realized’ by the second half of 2028.