South Carolina Senate Race: Polls Show Tight Race Between Graham and Andrews
Darline Graham, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina, is facing a close race against Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews. A recent poll from The New York Times/Siena Research Institute reveals both candidates are tied at 48 percent, with 3 percent of voters undecided. This poll comes as former President Donald Trump prepares to rally support for Graham in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
Midterm elections are often a barometer for the ruling party’s political environment. Historically, the president’s party loses seats during these elections. Trump secured a victory in South Carolina during the 2024 presidential race against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
Darline Graham’s candidacy comes after the death of her brother, the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Lindsey won his seat in the 2020 election cycle but passed away at 71 due to aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Three days after his passing, Darline was sworn into his seat with Trump’s endorsement.
Lately, Trump’s approval ratings on the economy, immigration, jobs, and ongoing issues like the war in Iran have declined. Despite this, he travels across the country, including stops in South Carolina, to support GOP candidates.
The poll indicates gender divides in support. Men favor Graham at 55 percent, while Andrews has the support of 40 percent. Women prefer Andrews at 54 percent compared to Graham’s 43 percent. Among Independents, Andrews leads with 57 percent versus Graham’s 37 percent.
Graham has majority backing from white voters aged 45 and over, regardless of education, and Republican likely voters. The poll shows 89 percent of Trump voters from 2024 support Graham, while 8 percent back Andrews. Graham’s favorability stands at 44 percent, whereas 41 percent view her unfavorably. Andrews has a 45 percent favorability and a 29 percent unfavorable rating.
In terms of specific issues, 51 percent believe Andrews would better handle the economy, while 43 percent think Graham would. On immigration, Graham leads with 50 percent compared to Andrews’ 44 percent. Regarding actions beneficial for ordinary South Carolinians, 49 percent favor Andrews, with 46 percent backing Graham.
The poll surveyed 707 likely voters in South Carolina from October 19-26, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican, with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket showing Graham in the lead.
D. Stephen Voss, a political professor at the University of Kentucky, commented, “Polls have been trending towards the Democrats with increasing margins. Surprises are possible if this pattern continues. However, polls are snapshots, not predictors. Most voters decide by late October, offering Republicans hope that their standing will stabilize in predominantly Republican states like South Carolina.”
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, noted that Republicans might consolidate in the final days. If Democrats secure a win, the Senate could become more attainable for them.
An InsiderAdvantage poll reveals Graham at 46 percent, Andrews at 45 percent, Libertarian Kasie Whitener at 2 percent, Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett at 3 percent, with 4 percent undecided. This survey, conducted from September 28-29, 2026, involved 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
A previous InsiderAdvantage poll showed a slight lead for Graham with 45.1 percent against Andrews’ 43.2 percent. The survey, covering 1,200 likely voters from September 8-9, 2026, reported a margin of error of 2.83 percent.