SpaceX Rocket’s Accidental Collision with the Moon

A SpaceX rocket, which was launched to send lunar landers more than a year ago, is set to collide with the moon. The impact is expected on Wednesday when the rocket’s upper stage will strike the moon, creating a crater and releasing a plume of dust and debris. Scientists and skygazers are keen to witness this event. Space tracking expert Bill Gray predicts the collision will occur at a speed of 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western edge. Observation conditions will be favorable in the eastern U.S., Canada, and much of South America.

The increasing amount of space debris highlights a growing threat as more items crowd into orbit. Bill Gray notes that space is getting crowded, and the collision emphasizes this issue. Although SpaceX did not intend for the rocket to hit the moon, experts suggest that nudging the upper stage into an orbit around the sun could have prevented the crash. This will be the second time a rocket has accidentally collided with the moon, following a Chinese rocket segment’s impact in 2022.

The upcoming collision will be on the moon’s near side, with an energy equivalent to three tons of TNT. The flash from the impact, lasting less than a second, may be too dim to see. However, the ejected material could stretch several miles into space and stay visible to telescopes for minutes. Benjamin Fernando from Los Alamos National Laboratory urges both professionals and amateurs to observe the event to learn about debris impact risks for future astronauts.

The anticipated impact crater will measure approximately 90 feet across and 16 feet deep. While not visible from Earth, spacecraft like NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will document the site. Danuri will fly close to the SpaceX rocket just two minutes before impact. The abandoned rocket segment is about 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighs around 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms). It carried two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025. One, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, landed successfully, while Japan-based ispace’s lander crashed.

Scientists want to study well-tracked human-made impacts, as natural meteoroids provide little warning before hitting the moon. During the Apollo era, NASA crashed rockets and lunar modules into the moon for seismic data. In 2009, NASA’s LCROSS mission purposefully impacted near the lunar south pole to search for ice. With the moon becoming a focus for exploration, improving debris monitoring is crucial before humans and robots arrive. The U.S. and China are preparing missions to land astronauts on the moon in the coming years. SpaceX and Blue Origin are contending to build the lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis IV mission, the first since the Apollo astronauts.

Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell views this impact as non-threatening. However, he emphasizes the need to prevent leaving rocket stages in chaotic orbits once long-term lunar bases are established.

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