- July 1, 2026
- Updated 12:31 am
Talarico Leads Paxton in U.S. Senate Race in Texas Poll
Democratic state Representative James Talarico is currently leading Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. This information comes from a recent poll by Texas Public Opinion Research. Paxton, having secured the Senate GOP runoff by defeating Senator John Cornyn, now turns his attention to this critical race.
The runoff occurred as neither candidate secured a majority in the March primary, leading to a significant intraparty contest. This event has national implications for the GOP’s direction in a key Sun Belt state while determining who will face Talarico in November.
The poll indicates Talarico holds 47 percent of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 44 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown garners 1 percent, with 7 percent of voters undecided and 2 percent indicating they will not vote. Attempts have been made to contact both Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns for comments.
“The poll shows undecided voters leaning 19 percent towards Paxton, 17 percent towards Talarico, and 13 percent towards Brown, with half of these voters still uncertain.”
This survey involved 1,670 likely voters, conducted on May 27 and May 28. The margin of error stands at 2.8 percent.
Talarico has a favorability rating of 47 percent with 40 percent unfavorable. Paxton’s favorability is at 38 percent, with a significant 57 percent unfavorable mark. On understanding economic challenges, Talarico holds a slight edge over Paxton, 45 percent to 40 percent. Eight percent of the respondents feel neither candidate understands these challenges, while 7 percent are unsure.
Seventy-five percent of those surveyed view Paxton as too conservative, while 60 percent say Talarico is too liberal. Republican figures like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and others have criticized Talarico since the runoff election. Their focus has been on Talarico’s stance on various issues, including his views on the American flag and his dietary preferences.
Talarico’s team has countered by highlighting Paxton’s previous controversies and labeling him as “the most corrupt politician in America.”
Race Downgrades to ‘Lean Republican’
The Cook Political Report has shifted the race’s status from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” following Paxton’s win. Jessica Taylor, a political editor, expressed that Paxton’s win gives national Republicans a candidate perceived as weaker compared to the incumbent senator.
Republicans now contend with a controversial candidate who struggles with fundraising. The shift suggests the race is approaching a “toss-up” scenario.
Trump’s Reaction to Paxton’s Win
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump congratulated Ken Paxton on his runoff win. He also praised John Cornyn for his career, noting that Cornyn will remain a friend. Trump criticized the opposition and promised support for Paxton’s campaign, including potential rallies.
President Trump expressed his confidence in Paxton as a “common sense Senator” respected by all.
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