Texas Senate Race: Dems Gain Ground
Changing Political Landscape in Texas
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly four decades, yet an increasing number of Republicans are privately acknowledging that this trend might be in jeopardy. Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in numerous polls. Critics argue these are just snapshots in time, but he has also significantly out-raised Paxton financially, monopolizing Texas television screens for weeks.
Before the May primary, Senate Republican leaders cautioned Trump that a win for Paxton could mean an expensive general election, requiring GOP funding to make Paxton more acceptable to swing voters. However, three months later, that financial support is still lacking. Talarico’s expenditure on television advertising since June amounts to approximately $31.5 million compared to the Republicans’ $4.7 million.
Republican Concerns and Strategy
Trump is now turning his attention to the issue. He recently headlined a fundraiser in Houston, supposedly aiding Paxton, though the funds actually went to the Republican National Committee. A recent Supreme Court ruling allows the RNC to coordinate spending directly with campaigns, intending to help candidates like Paxton, who are short on funds. A pro-Paxton group invested $800,000 in a new advertising campaign, marking a minor surge in outside spending.
The Cook Political Report designates the Senate race as a toss-up, prompting many Republicans to issue warnings. Some operatives cautioned the White House months earlier, suggesting that nominating former Senator John Cornyn would have been more cost-effective. A senior Republican shared frustrations with CNN over unfulfilled promises of financial backing. Republican strategist Alex Patton reflected on Texas’s political history, acknowledging Talarico as an exceptional candidate against Paxton’s flaws.
Internal Divisions
Negativity surrounding Paxton’s campaign is causing significant political figures to make difficult decisions. John Cornyn, who lost a primary runoff to Paxton, recently stated he wouldn’t campaign for him despite supporting the Republican ticket otherwise. Cornyn’s staff is also shifting, with former deputy legislative director Jacob Smith joining Talarico’s campaign.
The absence of promised financial support from Trump’s political operation is generating concerns beyond Texas. GOP strategists are wary of reallocating funds from other competitive races to aid Paxton.
Financial Comparisons
According to Federal Election Commission filings through June 30, Talarico’s campaign committee raised $68.6 million and spent $47 million, leaving $21.5 million in the bank. Most contributions were from individual donors, overshadowing Paxton’s fundraising efforts.
In contrast, Paxton raised a combined $9.2 million across his campaign committees, with only $1.76 million cash on hand. Talarico’s campaign spent tens of millions on ads, while Paxton’s campaign spent just over $150,000, acknowledging a lag on TV presence.
The Polls
Public polling remains tight, often tilting towards Talarico. Despite some polls showing Paxton ahead narrowly, Talarico leads by small margins in several key surveys. Paxton remains optimistic, citing internal polling and Texas’s Republican tendencies.
Strategists are divided on the race’s tight nature. Some attribute it to Talarico’s uncontested advertising advantage. Others believe Paxton is failing to consolidate his party’s support, unlike Talarico.
Legal Challenges
Paxton’s legal issues extend over a decade. He faced felony securities fraud charges in 2015 and endured impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 over bribery allegations. Although he settled some legal disputes, others remain, including appeals and whistleblower lawsuits.
Recently, Talarico’s campaign requested unsealed deposition transcripts of Paxton as part of a civil dispute, arguing they impact his fitness for office. Nothing comparable has emerged against Talarico.