The Impact of Texas’ Growing Data-Center Industry on Air Pollution
New research indicates that Texas’ increasing data-center industry might hinder efforts to reduce air pollution. The study, published by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), analyzed how electricity demands from the AI boom could influence emissions through 2031. Key pollutants studied include nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide. The findings suggest that the impact significantly depends on electricity generation methods. Researchers contacted HARC for further information.
The expansion of data centers in Texas is significant, with projects evident in regions like Abilene, the Dallas-Fort Worth area, San Antonio, Austin, and West Texas. According to state records, major companies such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle are involved. Abilene provides information on projects, including the Stargate initiative, while Fort Worth has reported existing data centers covering about 3 million square feet.
Pollution Could Undo Years of Improvement
Texas has achieved notable emissions reductions over the past two decades. From 2002 to 2024, NOx emissions dropped by 67%, sulfur dioxide by 80%, VOCs by 37%, carbon dioxide by 52%, and PM2.5 by 60%. However, the demand from data centers could alter this progress.
HARC explored scenarios where data-center demand is fulfilled using the Texas electricity grid. If the grid’s forecast energy mix supplies demands, NOx emissions by 2031 might rise 136% from a baseline with no new data centers. VOC emissions could surpass 2002 levels by 32%, while PM2.5 could reach levels similar to 2006.
The study emphasizes that power sources play a vital role. Reliance on fuel combustion for additional power might elevate nitrogen oxide emissions two to tenfold compared to using grid electricity, solar, and wind. Even with the cleanest energy scenario, emissions would rise due to the substantial electricity requirements of new facilities.
Data Center Demand in Texas Increases
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) provides insights into the potential expansion of data centers. Governor Greg Abbott mentioned that ERCOT was considering over 474 gigawatts of connections, predominantly from data centers. Abbott instructed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to audit projects, evaluating their electricity and water needs and onsite generation plans.
In September, Abbott ordered the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to pause data-center permits pending ERCOT’s audit. Concerns include grid reliability and resource demands. HARC insists that Texas’ future emissions hinge on current power supply decisions. The projected data-center expansion might either cause minor increases or negate significant progress of the last two decades.