Trump’s Support for Netanyahu: Implications for Israel’s Democracy

Donald Trump has publicly supported Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just a week before crucial elections. This election could decide whether Israel maintains its status as a prosperous liberal democracy or shifts further towards an elected autocracy. Trump’s endorsement urged Israeli voters to consider Netanyahu as a strong partner against Iran and a wartime leader. This statement from an American president about an allied country’s democratic choices is notable.

Trump enjoys popularity in Israel due to policies such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords. He also challenged Iran, earning gratitude from many Israelis. However, supporting Israel should be seen as distinct from supporting Netanyahu. The two are increasingly at odds.

This pattern of support from Trump aligns with his tendency to back right-wing populist leaders worldwide. In Poland and Hungary, Trump’s administration also intervened to support nationalist candidates. Trump seems to admire strong leaders who dismiss political opposition and institutional checks, mirroring his own style aspirations.

Netanyahu’s Political Path

Netanyahu’s ruling coalition has faced criticism for weakening Israel’s democratic institutions. Actions taken by his government, such as undermining judicial independence and security establishments, reflect common populist strategies. Beyond democratic principles, Netanyahu’s leadership has faced failures and strategic errors.

On October 7, 2023, Israel experienced its worst security failure, underestimating threats from Hamas. Netanyahu’s government has resisted establishing an independent commission to address this failure. His supporters often praise military actions against regional adversaries, but these haven’t translated into a secure regional situation, damaging Israel’s international reputation.

Internal Challenges

Netanyahu’s political survival depends on parties with demands that undermine Israel. The ultra-Orthodox parties insist on military exemptions for Haredi men. This poses an economic and military threat as other Israeli citizens face prolonged military service, and Haredi communities remain undereducated in critical subjects. As this population grows, it could increasingly strain Israel’s economy.

The far-right influence within Netanyahu’s government promotes settlement expansion, escalating tensions in the West Bank. Violence against Palestinians continues, threatening Israel’s international standing. With European economic relations at stake, existing polling suggests Netanyahu’s bloc may lack a majority.

Post-Election Scenarios

If Netanyahu loses his parliamentary majority, opposition parties, including Israeli-Arab parties, might secure more Knesset seats. Forming a coalition would involve political compromises as Netanyahu’s propaganda complicates collaboration with Arab parties.

There is a risk that Trump, dissatisfied with an opposition victory, may intervene further. Hypothetically, Trump might pressure potential Israeli leaders like Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett to join Netanyahu’s coalition, citing strategic partnerships with the U.S. and potential peace with Saudi Arabia.

This unprecedented intervention would require Saudi cooperation. Only signed, credible commitments from Saudi Arabia could make such a scenario plausible. Alternatively, Trump and Netanyahu might provoke conflict with Iran, influencing the election’s results.

Maintaining Sovereignty

Israelis must separate gratitude toward Trump from obligation. Their election belongs to them, and leaders must commit to delivering the electorate’s decision. Resolving to make political changes free from external pressures is crucial for Israel’s future.

The views presented in this article are the author’s own.