Ukraine’s Gains Challenge Russian Advances Amid Continued Conflict
Kyiv has hindered Russia’s goals in the Donetsk region according to an analysis that indicates Ukraine’s military has regained the strategic and operational initiative for the first time in two years. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly receives inflated reports from his generals about battlefield gains, reinforcing his belief of victory. Despite this, talks have been ongoing with U.S. figures Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over this month, with Putin showing no sign of reducing his maximalist war ambitions.
The past six months have seen Ukraine bring Russia’s territorial advances to a standstill and enact successful counteroffensives in Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman, states the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Their map highlights these achievements, acknowledged even by pro-Kremlin military bloggers. The think tank notes Ukraine has halted Russian incursions into the Dnipropetrovsk region, regained territory around Kupiansk, and eliminated a Russian salient that was a threat to Slovyansk’s northern flank and the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt. This heavily fortified network of cities is crucial to Ukraine’s defensive strategy in Donbas, which Russia aims to capture.
The ISW explains that Ukrainian forces managed to contest the initiative on strategic and operational fronts from late 2025 through 2026, a feat not seen since the August 2024 Kursk Offensive. Military analyst Giorgi Revishvili confirmed a productive first half of 2026 for Ukraine, with successful local counteroffensives liberating areas from Russian control.
Ukrainian gains have been acknowledged by Russian military bloggers, who reported that Ukraine’s forces significantly disrupted Russian operations north of Lyman, reaching the Zherebets River between September 9 and 11. Clément Molin, an open-source intelligence expert, wrote that Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps liberated over 77 square miles in this area. Revishvili added that these victories ease pressure on the Fortress Belt from the northeast and illustrate that maneuver warfare is feasible with careful planning and tactical innovation.
Retired Major General Mick Ryan highlighted Ukrainian progress as surprising amidst ongoing Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. He noted that a separate operation in southern Ukraine freed around 290 square miles, challenging the notion of a stalemate on the front lines.
Despite Ukraine’s advances, ISW observed that Russia had made targeted gains near Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, although maintaining momentum is challenging. Revishvili indicated that the changing climate, including increased cloud and fog, could limit the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, while the loss of foliage threatens to expose Ukrainian positions.
Russian forces are expected to focus efforts around Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, and Druzhkivka, aiming to secure a foothold that could facilitate further operations. A presence in these areas would enable Russia to concentrate forces and intensify their offensive.
Another significant challenge for Ukraine lies in protecting its airspace, as Russia employs affordable strike systems like the S8000 Banderol and other drones, alongside missiles. The speed of jet-powered drones complicates interception efforts, increasing the threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics.
Speculation surrounds Putin’s potential mobilization, pressured by commanders to reinforce amidst troop losses. While the Kremlin denies such intentions, Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate reported that Russian generals request an additional 800,000 troops. However, training and integrating these numbers is unlikely, suggesting a gradual mobilization is probable given the backlash against the September 2022 draft.