US Considers Plan to Seize Iran’s Nuclear Material
Reports indicate the White House is evaluating a plan to seize enriched uranium from Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site. This decision follows images of ongoing construction and worries about Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who seems willing to advance Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Dan Hoffman, a former CIA Station Chief, discussed possible intelligence and military strategies available.
The Pentagon has reportedly revisited an extraordinary approach for President Donald Trump. The plan involves deploying thousands of American troops to Iran to secure enriched uranium from damaged and underground facilities. Some propose calling it a raid, but experts liken it more to a temporary invasion of enemy territory without surprise, where defenses and contents are still uncertain. This could lead to troops achieving their goal only to face a protracted mission.
This would be a temporary invasion of hostile territory, launched without real surprise, against an enemy that has spent months expecting us.
Historical parallels have been drawn to Operation Eagle Claw, the failed 1980 attempt led by President Jimmy Carter to rescue American hostages in Tehran. The mission ended in disaster, underscoring logistical and geographical challenges. Comparisons highlight the complexities involved today.
Today’s military has advanced significantly, with seasoned special operations and extensive combat experience. However, geographical challenges and logistical hurdles remain significant. President Trump stated he considered and rejected the mission previously, not wanting a repeat of Carter’s experience. Yet, reports indicate a more complex mission is on the table, one that eclipses Eagle Claw in its intricacy and risk.
Intelligence suggests uncertainty over the exact location of Iran’s enriched uranium, complicating any potential operation. Reports suggest a plan to secure various nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex, which poses significant challenges due to its depth and potential defenses.
Potential military plans describe a scenario requiring specialized forces, excavation tools, and the creation of an airstrip to transport enriched uranium out of the country. The Pickaxe Mountain site alone presents daunting challenges due to its underground location. It’s believed to house centrifuges, and accessing it would require overcoming significant obstacles.
Iran appears prepared, reinforcing entrances and access roads with mines and roadblocks. Potential American operations would require suppressing Iranian air defenses and controlling the surrounding areas for further military actions.
Experts warn Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could retaliate by targeting American interests in the region. The extended presence of American forces in Iran raises concerns about turning a raid into an unwanted invasion.
Questions arise on whether a more strategic approach might involve sealing entrances to facilities rather than occupying them. This method could prioritize monitoring and striking attempts to reopen sites, rather than undertaking a dangerous military incursion.
The administration considers these matters carefully, given the potential for international ramifications and the internal debate over legal authority and public support for such an operation.
The ultimate challenge lies not just in reaching the objective but ensuring the mission’s objectives justify the costs, exploring less hazardous strategies to achieve the desired strategic outcomes.