US Munitions Shortages and Industry Responses
The United States has encountered significant challenges in munitions supply during its conflict with Iran. In the ten-week war, compounded by intermittent clashes, the Army nearly depleted its stockpile of long-range ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles. Concurrently, there is a critical shortage of THAAD and Patriot air defense systems. The Navy faces a reduced supply of Tomahawk land attack and Standard air defense missiles. The Air Force is dealing with a lack of joint air-to-surface standoff missiles.
The War Department is taking steps to address these shortages by forming long-term agreements with industry leaders to increase munitions production. A notable contract was recently signed with Lockheed-Martin for high-rate Patriot missile production, potentially totaling $59 billion over seven years. This contract aims to triple Raytheon’s current production rate by the conclusion of 2030. Lockheed-Martin plans to expand its workforce by 50% and upgrade or establish 20 new plants.
A parallel agreement with RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, will boost Tomahawk production from a current annual output of about 60 to at least 1,000. Additionally, Raytheon will increase the production of AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles from 1,200 to over 1,900. It also plans to raise Standard Missile SM-6 multi-purpose missile production from 300 to 500 annually. Raytheon began this production increase when the levels stood at about 150. RTX has also disclosed plans to enhance production of SM-3 IIA and accelerate SM-3 IB production, though specific final production rates were not cited.
Several factors have contributed to these munitions shortfalls. After the Cold War, policymakers anticipated a reduced need for munitions. The Pentagon also repeatedly used munitions budgets to fund other programs, leaving stockpiles underfunded. Military planning underestimated munitions consumption during prolonged conflicts, particularly the war with Iraq and subsequent operations with the Houthis to maintain Red Sea navigation.
Recognizing the inadequacy of just-in-time munitions strategies, the Biden administration began boosting production. Both the Trump administration and Congress have committed additional resources towards this goal. However, challenges remain, such as the financial needs of subcontractors and the workforce demands of prime contractors and lower-tier suppliers. Lockheed-Martin’s Patriot targets may not be fully realized until 2030, despite operating a three-shift 24/7 production line. Other contractors might face similar obstacles.
The United States continues to encounter threats from nations like Russia, China, and potentially Iran. Alongside commitments to other defense programs, sustaining the current surge in munitions production may not be guaranteed. Should future conflicts arise, it is crucial that munitions are available to meet military needs promptly. Efforts must focus on avoiding past complacency regarding munitions as budgetary afterthoughts.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He served as the undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004, and as a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.