Tense Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary Shows Tight Contest

The Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is fiercely contested. State Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, faces a strong challenge from Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley holds a slim lead of about 2,000 votes, equivalent to 0.4 percent, with 98 percent of the votes counted as of 2 a.m. local time. Both candidates are awaiting the final ballots to determine their next steps. A recount could be requested if the margin remains less than 1 percent.

The process has hit a delay. Elections officials announced shortly before midnight that around 28,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee had not been counted due to a downloading issue attributed to “human error,” according to Paulina Gutiérrez, the executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission. These results are expected early Wednesday and could sway the outcome.

“We have built something that will change politics forever,” said Hong to her supporters late Tuesday night. “The work we have done will be remembered. I know we don’t have the final results, but we are ready to keep fighting.”

The Crowley campaign remains optimistic yet cautious. “We’re still waiting for all the results to come in,” the campaign stated early Wednesday. “We feel optimistic, but it’s not over until the votes are counted.” The winner of this primary will contest against Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November, presenting a critical test of progressive influence in Wisconsin, a key battleground state.

Crowded Field Narrowed to Two

The primary was crowded following Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ decision not to seek a third term. His departure led to a chaotic race to fill his position. Tiffany, with Donald Trump’s support, won the Republican primary unchallenged. In contrast, the Democratic primary boiled down to a race between Hong and Crowley after a broad initial field. Crowley had exited the race in early July but re-entered a couple of weeks later following Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez dropping out due to a campaign finance scandal. Evers eventually endorsed Crowley.

The Democratic establishment fears a Hong victory could facilitate a win for Tiffany in November, as her platform might be less appealing to moderate and independent voters. Hong has managed to energize left-leaning voters, though she hasn’t received endorsement from several national progressive figures, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, who usually support progressive candidates elsewhere.

“My focus has been in winning back the Congress, winning back the House, and positioning ourselves to have the best chance possible to win the Senate,” shared Ocasio-Cortez during an interview when questioned about her lack of endorsement for Hong.

Polls Underestimated Crowley’s Support

Polling for the primary misjudged Crowley’s standing significantly. Public surveys consistently favored Hong as the front-runner. A State Navigate poll conducted from August 3 to 6 with 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters gave Hong a 22-point lead over Crowley, showing her with 44 percent support compared to Crowley’s 22 percent. This poll had a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points. Recent Marquette University Law School polls also showed Hong leading significantly over other candidates. The most recent survey among 407 Democratic primary voters between July 22 and 27 indicated Hong with 38 percent support, while Crowley had merely 7 percent, leaving 34 percent undecided.

This story is developing, and further updates will follow.