Trump’s Approval Ratings Before the Midterms

Two weeks prior to the midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are low across 41 states, including all major battlegrounds. This information is based on data from Civiqs’ tracker of registered voters, with 137,330 responses collected from January 20, 2025, to October 19, 2026.

A Newsweek analysis comparing these ratings with those from when Trump began his second term shows a national approval rating of 32% and a disapproval rating of 61%. This gives him a net approval of minus 29. Only nine states show positive net approval for Trump.

In key battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada, his net approval is -28, -26, and -24, respectively. Kentucky has experienced the most significant decline, dropping from +23 to -13, marking a 36-point decrease.

Presidential Approval’s Impact

While approval ratings aren’t direct forecasts for individual races, they influence the national political climate. With Congress control at stake on November 3, Trump’s ratings could affect voter turnout and Republican campaign strategies.

Explore Trump’s net approval rating in each state two weeks before the midterms using the map below.

Nine States Still Rate Trump Positively

Trump’s positive ratings are mainly in Republican-leaning states. Wyoming is the highest with +14, followed by North Dakota (+11) and West Virginia (+8). Arkansas, Idaho, Alabama, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Utah also show slight positive net approval. However, these figures are notably lower compared to January 2025.

Demographic Insights

Demographic data enhance understanding of state ratings. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 20% approve of Trump, while 72% disapprove, leading to a 52-point negative split. Voter age significantly affects approval, with older voters generally less negative.

Independents largely disapprove at 66% compared to 25% approval. Republicans remain supportive at 75% approval. Female voters have a 66-to-28 disapproval margin, which contrasts with a 55-to-37 split among male voters.

Education is a dividing factor. Approval among postgraduates is 20%, among college graduates is 31%, and among non-college graduates is 36%, with disapproval leading in each group.

Battleground Struggles

Key battleground states show challenging conditions for Trump. Arizona at -20, Florida at -17, and others show significant declines since the start of Trump’s second term. For example, Ohio has decreased from +8 to -21.

Underwater in Senate Battle States

Trump shows negative net approval in six states with crucial Senate contests, including Maine at -33 and Michigan at -28. Ohio is at -21, with Texas also at -21.

States with Largest Approval Declines

From January 2025, Trump’s approval has fallen in every state. Kentucky showed the biggest drop, from +23 to -13. Wyoming and Idaho followed with significant declines. Several traditionally Republican states have seen stark decreases in net approval.

Deep Blue States Consistent Opposition

Democratic strongholds like Hawaii, Maryland, and Vermont record low approval ratings. These states had already shown strong disapproval at the start of Trump’s second term.

White House Response

The White House emphasizes Trump’s leadership role in the GOP, claiming his record energizes the party’s base. Spokesperson Davis Ingle cites economic and policy achievements as evidence of success. The midterms are framed as a choice between Trump’s agenda and what they describe as Democratic obstruction.

This Newsweek story was generated in part by Martyn, our AI assistant.