Armed Resistance in Southeastern Iran: Challenges and Implications

A coalition of Iranian opposition groups in the southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman has initiated a series of armed attacks against the Iranian clerical regime. These strikes, claimed by the coalition known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM), have contributed to instability and prompted questions about the potential spread of armed resistance to Tehran.

Iran is predominantly a Shiite Muslim nation, whereas the minority Iranian Sunni community has long faced discrimination. Sistan and Baluchistan, a majority Sunni province, is Iran’s second-largest among its 31 provinces.

“The Sunni unrest can stretch the regime’s military and internal security capabilities,” said Mardo Soghom, an Iran expert. He noted the psychological impact on regime forces from prior operations by the U.S. and Israel.

Soghom highlighted that although armed groups may not seize southern control, they could weaken the regime’s hold on the region. Whether these groups receive assistance from adversaries like the Gulf Arab states, Israel, or the U.S. remains uncertain.

According to the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA), the pace of violence in the provinces accelerated with 18 incidents recorded in the final 18 days of October 2023. JMM emerged in December 2025 through a coalition of Baloch nationalist organizations and the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl.

HRANA documented at least 63 armed incidents in Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman between March 31 and October 10, 2026, during an escalation of violence. These incidents resulted in at least 94 deaths and 33 injuries, while official reports listed 87 fatalities and 10 injuries.

On October 14, the Baloch coalition shocked the regime with the assassination of several Basij paramilitaries, designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. government. Days earlier, a roadside bomb in Zahedan killed Nosrat Eftekhari, a deputy for Cultural and Social Affairs.

“There have been periodic cycles of unrest in Sistan and Baluchistan Province,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran. The escalation in activity coincides with increased unrest and the appointment of Mohammad Karami, a former governor, as the IRGC’s Ground Forces commander in 2025.

Brodsky pointed out that maintaining Iran’s territorial integrity is a priority in Western capitals.

The Artesh, distinct from the IRGC, consists of ground forces, navy, air force, and air defense force. Khalilullah Balochi, a Baluch activist, mentioned the intensification of the attacks.

Navid Mohebbi, a former Persian media analyst for the U.S. State Department, discussed the JMM’s recent attacks on mid-level regime officials. He noted the cautious response from the Iranian public, wary of separatist ambitions and radical Islamism.

Mohebbi observed encouraging signs from the JMM, such as their focus on dismantling the system of Velayat-e Faqih and liberating Iran for all its citizens. He mentioned the group’s guerrilla tactics could deliver significant psychological impacts on the regime. The success of their efforts beyond Sistan and Baluchistan depends on building public trust.

“The coalition has a lot of guns,” said Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, referring to the limited scope of armed rebellion in Baluchistan.

Sabti noted the clerical regime in Tehran struggles to maintain control over remote provinces, similar to certain regions in South America. Due to limited reporter access, accurate news about these areas is scarce.

Sabti explained that while the JMM can target local commanders and troops, they pose no direct threat to higher military structures, such as those of the air force.

This report offers insights into the growing unrest in Southeastern Iran, impacting regional stability and challenging regime control.