Bernie Sanders Campaigns with Troy Jackson in Key Maine Senate Race
Independent Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont is actively supporting Troy Jackson, the Democratic candidate in Maine’s Senate race. This marks Sanders’ first appearance in Maine since the controversy surrounding Graham Platner’s campaign earlier in the summer. Sanders and Jackson will attend events in Bangor, Biddeford, and Lewiston. Their goal is to rally the Democratic base to vote for Jackson against Susan Collins, a long-serving Republican senator. The Maine race is highly competitive this midterm season.
Maine previously supported Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 7 points in 2024. Democrats are hopeful due to a favorable national landscape, influenced by President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings. However, Collins remains a strong opponent with a history of large victory margins, driven by her personal appeal and moderate image.
Sanders, who aligns with the Democratic Party, had earlier campaigned in Maine with Platner, a progressive who secured the Democratic nomination in June. Despite denying allegations of sexual assault, Platner’s campaign was severely affected, leading him to step down. Some Democrats criticized Sanders for his endorsement of Platner, citing concerns with his candidacy.
“The hope is that voters who were enthused by Platner, but who felt disillusioned after his fall might decide to just check out and not participate; that Sanders’ appearance will be a way for them to get reconnected to the campaign and to remember what the issues are,” remarked Ronald Schmidt, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine, during an interview with Newsweek.
According to Dan Gottlieb, Jackson’s campaign spokesperson, Sanders joining the campaign is an exciting development. He stated in a Newsweek communiqué that Sanders and Jackson champion the cause of working people. He criticized Collins for prioritizing billionaire and corporate interests over the working population.
Maine Senate Race: A Crucial Contest
The Maine Senate race is pivotal in the upcoming midterms, seen as one of the most significant opportunities for the Democrats to regain Senate control. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to win four seats for a Senate majority, with Vice President JD Vance acting as the potential tiebreaker. Maine, a state Trump lost in all three of his presidential bids, presents a crucial target for Democrats.
If Democrats do not win Maine, they would need victories in more conservative areas, complicating their path to a majority.
Sanders’ Support for Platner
Sanders initially endorsed Platner, campaigning together before the Democratic primary, where Platner easily overcame Governor Janet Mills, who had suspended her campaign. Platner was an advocate of progressive policies like Medicare for All and criticized military interventions. Sanders stood by him during various controversies, including inappropriate social media posts and accusations of aggressive behavior during past relationships, though Platner denied these allegations.
Sanders, facing backlash, eventually advised Platner to withdraw from the race following the sexual assault accusations. He released a statement outlining his conversation with Platner and recommending he step aside. The situation provoked criticism towards Sanders and progressive circles. Yet, Schmidt noted that discontent toward Sanders is minor compared to how Democrats and independents view Collins.
Polls and Predictions
Polling data indicates a tight race between Collins and Jackson. A recent survey by The Washington Post and George Mason University shows Jackson leading Collins by four percentage points, boasting 50% to her 46% among likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 points. Similarly, a Marist University poll places Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47%, within a 3.8-point error margin. However, a YouGov/CBS News poll reflects an equal split, with both candidates at 50%, indicating a margin of error of 4.7%.
Scholar Ronald Schmidt believes turnout will be critical in determining the race outcome. Collins is known for her strong reelection campaigns, while Jackson is a recognized figure among Maine’s Democrats due to his legislative track record.
The Influence of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have Jackson slightly ahead of Collins, with Jackson having a 57% likelihood on Kalshi and a 59% likelihood on Polymarket. These markets allow contract trading linked to political outcomes, estimating probabilities based on real-money wagers. Prices change as market participants respond to polls, fundraisers, candidate developments, and broader political shifts. These markets indicate trader sentiments at any given time but are not always accurate predictors.
Ongoing Developments in Maine
Both political parties remain focused on the Maine contest. Former President Barack Obama recently endorsed Jackson, potentially influencing support among Democrats. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has hinted at visiting Maine, which Schmidt suggests could be risky. Collins’ supporters, who might not favor the Trump administration, give her considerable leniency regarding her political alignment and support.
Collins and Jackson recently participated in two debates, with plans for two more. A notable exchange occurred when Collins criticized Trump’s tariffs while emphasizing her relief efforts for certain imports like road salt from Canada. Jackson countered this by stressing that minor exemptions didn’t balance out the broader trade policy challenges, stating, “We can’t eat road salt.”
Economic issues, such as home heating oil prices, are expected to significantly influence the race.
Next Steps
Two more debates are scheduled for October 13, hosted by WABI and WAGM, and October 15, organized by News Center Maine, The Portland Press Herald, and Maine Public.