Challenges in Keeping NATO Cohesive Amid Shifting Goals

Since taking on the role of NATO’s Secretary-General almost two years ago, Mark Rutte has focused heavily on keeping the United States committed to the alliance. His efforts have largely involved flattering President Donald Trump in hopes of preventing any withdrawal threats. The challenges, however, continue to evolve ahead of this week’s summit in Turkey.

Initially, the focus was on financial contributions. Trump has long criticized NATO allies for insufficient defense spending relative to their national budgets. This issue was addressed at last year’s summit when allies pledged to match U.S. GDP-based defense spending. The current challenge lies in translating these financial commitments into effective military capabilities, especially among European nations concerned about a Russian threat.

Last month, Rutte aimed to alleviate any concerns during a meeting at the White House. Using a presentation titled “Trump’s Trillion” in gold lettering, he highlighted $1.2 trillion in spending by European allies and Canada since 2017. Still, Trump expressed disappointment over some NATO allies’ reluctance to join the conflict with Iran, initiated by him and Israel without prior consultation. “We don’t need their money or anything. We only want loyalty,” Trump said.

Trump suggested he might have skipped the upcoming summit if it weren’t hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This signals that even influential leaders like Erdogan and Rutte face significant tasks in handling the summit’s direction. Rutte set a new standard of flattery during a White House meeting.

Historically, the NATO Secretary-General’s main role—always a European, never American—has involved fostering consensus within the alliance and speaking for its 32 member countries.

However, during Trump’s administration, both Rutte and his predecessor, Jens Stoltenberg, focused significantly on keeping the U.S. engaged with NATO. Trump has threatened to leave NATO, contemplated withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe, and showed interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark. His actions and statements have sometimes unsettled confidence among allies.

Rutte’s approach included strategic flattery. A recent Oval Office presentation featured elements resembling the U.S. flag and set new standards, even drawing criticism for likening Trump to a “dad.” Visuals highlighted the creation of numerous U.S. jobs and a $300 billion portfolio of European military equipment orders, attributed to the “leader of the free world.” Rutte gently countered Trump’s complaints regarding NATO’s lack of support against Iran, noting the deployment of up to 5,000 American aircraft from European bases before a ceasefire in April.

With potential reductions and mixed signals, the unity within NATO faces strains as Russia tests European defenses through drone flights near military bases across several countries, based on a study released on Thursday.

While Rutte’s flattery worked last year, new challenges have emerged. Each summit aims to reaffirm collective security, emphasizing the “all for one and one for all” promise in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Article 5 has only been invoked once, in response to the September 11 attacks on the U.S.

The last NATO summit took place in The Hague, Rutte’s home city as the former Dutch Prime Minister. The Dutch royal family hosted a dinner, and Trump stayed overnight at the king’s palace. Rutte secured allies’ support for significant defense spending commitments, and Trump left satisfied, calling NATO partners a “nice group of people.”

This year, Erdogan hosts the summit representing a crucial yet independent-minded NATO nation. His close ties with Trump might ensure the U.S. President’s participation, though unlikely to fully mend cracks. Rutte has attempted to convince Trump that European partners are investing more in defense, allowing the U.S. to address security challenges from China while they manage the conflict in Ukraine.

However, Trump now seeks more, and his demand for “loyalty” is not easily captured in graphs. Stoltenberg, Rutte’s predecessor, recounted in his memoirs a near-collision at the 2018 summit due to Trump’s unpredictable stance.

“If a U.S. President says they don’t want to defend other allies anymore and walks out of a NATO summit in protest, then the NATO treaty and its security guarantee hold little value,” Stoltenberg wrote.