Democratic Lead in Texas Congressional Districts
Democratic candidates are currently leading their Republican counterparts in three Texas congressional districts that President Trump carried, one notably by double digits, as per new polling data from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs.
The survey reveals Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, the Democratic nominee in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, outpacing Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz with 50% in comparison to her 45%. Trump previously won the district by 18 points.
Additionally, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico shows a lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a 50% to 42% advantage. Republican Senator Ted Cruz had previously managed an electoral win in this district by 9 points.
The 15th District: A Notable Shift
Texas’ 15th Congressional District stretches from Hidalgo County at the border to Guadalupe County near San Antonio. It is about 81% Hispanic, based on Census Bureau data cited by the Texas Tribune. Trump secured 18 points in this district in 2024, and De La Cruz reclaimed her position there by securing an additional 14 points.
Recently, polling suggests Pulido and Talarico both lead significantly, a turnabout large enough for Republican strategist Mike Madrid to label it as the third consecutive survey showing Pulido ahead by 5 to 7 points.
“While many perceived a shift to the right in 2024 as a permanent realignment, those familiar with the Latino vote suggest otherwise, citing frustration with economic conditions as a driving factor,” Madrid stated.
Madrid, who recently visited South Texas, noted a positive change in perception after engaging with Talarico, commending him for reaching Hispanic voters not on an ethnic basis but as members of the working class.
28th and 34th Districts: Close Contests
The pattern of Democratic advantage also shows in other districts. In the 28th District, held by Democrat Henry Cuellar despite Trump winning by 7 points, Talarico leads against Paxton 51% to 41%. Meanwhile, the 34th District, 90% Hispanic and classified as an even split by the Cook Political Report, shows Talarico with 53% compared to Paxton’s 42%.
Even as Trump retains backing at the top of the ticket, Democrats are securing positions down-ballot, indicating Republican gains may not extend deep in southern Texas.
“Hispanic voters repeatedly express dissatisfaction with the lack of economic discussion, despite conservative leanings on social and gun rights,” Madrid said.
Cultural topics, while relevant, emerge as decisive factors only after economic dialogue stalls from both parties, prompting voters to align with their cultural values.
Polling Insights
National survey data aligns with Madrid’s observations. A UnidosUS poll of 3,000 registered Latino voters conducted from April 27 to May 14, 2026, highlighted living costs and economic issues as critical concerns.
Furthermore, a UnidosUS Texas poll conducted from October 8-22, 2025, found tariffs and trade policy ranking third among economic issues, following prices and wages.
Meanwhile, deportations register highly, although more as personal concerns than purely economic, with broad support for concentrating deportations on serious offenders.
What Polls Suggest About Upcoming Elections
The Texas Southern University poll coincides with other national indicators, prompting changes in election ratings favoring Democrats. Polling shows competitive races, exemplified by splits in opinions based on age.
Election analyst Nate Silver highlights the importance of considering multiple factors, not just singular polling data, emphasizing Talarico’s prospects rooted in fundraising and controversies surrounding Paxton.
Despite Democrats not having a Senate seat since 1988, Talarico’s marginal edge persists within polling limitations.