Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race

Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford will confront Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in the upcoming November elections after securing victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Nevada. This sets the stage for a closely watched race to lead the Silver State. Nevada, a significant battleground, shifted its support in 2024, backing President Donald Trump by approximately 3 percentage points, despite previously supporting Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020. Before Lombardo’s tenure, Democrat Steve Sisolak held the state’s top office. The Cook Political Report considers the gubernatorial race a ‘toss up.’

Ford emerged victorious in the Democratic primary against Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and other contenders, leading to his November showdown with Lombardo. Ford’s win over Hill is perceived by some as a validation of establishment-backed candidates in competitive statewide races against progressive outsiders. Ford aims to be Nevada’s first Black governor if successful in the general election.

According to the Associated Press, Ford secured 66.2% of the vote, compared to Hill’s 21.1%. The race for Lombardo was announced at 11:35 p.m., with Lombardo having gained 91.4% by 11:52 p.m. ET.

Lombardo’s Political Position

Lombardo stands as a potentially vulnerable incumbent among Republicans heading into the midterms. His political stance generally aligns with Trump’s agenda, yet he has distanced himself at times, notably absent during Trump’s visit to Las Vegas in April. Moreover, he has expressed reservations about the costs associated with mass deportation policies. Ford has received an endorsement from Former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Public Polling Insights

Public polls on the general race remain sparse, yet existing surveys indicate a tight contest. A March Nevada Public Opinion Pulse poll by Noble Predictive Insights showed Lombardo leading marginally by 1 point, with 39% compared to Ford’s 38%. Around 6% of voters showed support for a third-party candidate, while 17% remained undecided.

• Among independents, Lombardo has a 6-point lead.
• Ford shows stronger support among Hispanics and women, leading by 24- and 4-point margins respectively.
• Lombardo’s favorability rating stands at 48%, compared to Ford’s 40%.
• Ford is less known to voters, with 27% unfamiliar or without an opinion, versus 14% for Lombardo.

Poll Data and Analysis

The poll encompassed 845 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.

Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, remarked on Lombardo’s political strategy, “Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party. The generic ballot says Nevada still leans a bit blue, but Lombardo’s personal brand, job image, and financial position are keeping him highly competitive.”

Continued Polling Studies

An Emerson College Polling survey of 800 registered Nevada voters conducted from November 16 to November 18 found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41% each, with 18% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

About 36% of respondents disapproved of Lombardo’s performance as governor, while 34% approved.

Prediction Market Outlook

Prediction markets provide Democrats with a slight advantage in the race. Kalshi projects Democrats have a 56% chance of winning Nevada’s governor’s office, compared to 46% for Republicans, while Polymarket estimates Democrats’ odds at 54% and Republicans’ at 43%.