Political Deadlock in Israeli Government Formation

Israeli left-wing activists gathered outside Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot’s residence in Herzliya. Their goal was to urge the inclusion of Arab parties in the government. Israel faces a political stalemate. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot has a clear path to governance.

In the recent election, opposition parties won more seats than Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc. However, Eisenkot lacks a majority without the Arab parties’ support, a scenario he ruled out during his campaign. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s Likud party fell short of the 61 seats needed in the Knesset.

Forming a Government

Israel’s president will soon consult with all elected party leaders. Each will recommend a leader to form a coalition. The president doesn’t have to pick the leader of the largest party but will choose the candidate most likely to form a government. This candidate has 28 days to secure at least 61 supporting lawmakers, with possible extensions.

First Opportunity to Form a Coalition

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the most recommendations. Yet, without the Arab parties, his bloc lacks a majority. Arab parties represent 21% of Israel’s population. Eisenkot opposes forming a coalition with them due to their stance on Hamas. Netanyahu lacks enough seats with his traditional coalition partners.

Possible Outcomes

A unity government could involve both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. This would include moderate parties and align with U.S. administration goals. Yet, Eisenkot has refused to serve under Netanyahu, raising questions about leadership roles.

An Eisenkot government with Arab party support is another option. This would yield a majority but contradict Eisenkot’s campaign promises. The Arab parties might support a minority government without joining the coalition.

A third outcome is another election. Israel’s president has advised against it after a high turnout. Netanyahu might favor a repeat election, anticipating lower Arab turnout and less overseas voter participation.

A fourth possibility involves persuading lawmakers to defect. This seems unlikely as Eisenkot would need around 13 defectors, excluding Arab parties. Netanyahu would need about eight defections to succeed.

Opposition Strategy During Stalemate

A parliamentary majority against Netanyahu can still pass legislation with Arab lawmaker support. Eisenkot’s bloc considers replacing the Knesset speaker and initiating inquiries into political and security issues. They may attempt to reverse laws passed under Netanyahu deemed detrimental to democracy.

Potential Impact of Renewed Iran Conflict

Netanyahu emphasized the ongoing mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned of using national security for political gains. Renewed conflict with Iran could impact political negotiations and increase pressure for a unity government. Eisenkot briefly joined Netanyahu’s emergency government post-October attacks. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted Netanyahu’s potential political motives for renewing conflict amid government formation talks.

Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.