Reader Bias and NFL Quarterback Tiers Explained
Last month, The Athletic published Mike Sando’s Quarterback Tiers, an annual survey evaluating NFL quarterbacks based on expert opinion from coaches, executives, and insiders. This survey has been consistent for over a decade. This year, it added a new element: reader participation. Readers were invited to rank quarterbacks from Tier 1, representing elite franchise players, to Tier 5, indicating those not qualified to be NFL starters. Over 45,000 readers contributed more than half a million votes.
The reader outcomes generally aligned with expert rankings. Both groups presented similar standings for 35 quarterbacks. A detailed analysis of reader data uncovered a distinct factor: home-team bias. The Athletic doesn’t explicitly identify team supporters, but tracks the teams readers follow in its app. This information, anonymized without personal data, showed that team followers rated their quarterbacks higher than other readers did.
For all 32 teams, followers consistently rated their quarterback higher, often with a noteworthy margin. For instance, while most readers positioned quarterbacks like Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson in Tier 2, followers of their respective teams, the Patriots or Ravens, were more inclined to assign them to Tier 1. This wasn’t a drastic difference but rather a shift upward across the voting distribution. On average, the increase was about half a tier. Experts rated Jackson at 1.6, while Jared Goff received a 2.1. It’s evident that team followers provide a ‘home-team bump’.
Several quarterbacks enjoyed significant boosts from their own fans, notably Tyler Shough (Saints) and Drake Maye. Conversely, Deshaun Watson of the Browns experienced practically no favorable fan bump. Both followers and other readers rated him in Tier 5, suggesting he’s not a competent NFL starter, as the Browns made him their starter in August. Experts placed him firmly in Tier 4, though votes for Tiers 2, 3, and 5 were recorded.
The top reader-rated quarterbacks — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford — had minimal bumps, indicating consistent views among fans and opposing team followers.
Readers vs. Experts: Close Rankings but Distinct Differences
Readers’ perceptions of quarterbacks aligned closely with those of the expert panel, including GMs, coaches, and executives. Ranking quarterbacks by average tier showed slight variations between the two groups, usually moving up or down marginally.
While experts provided high ratings, readers were more conservative. On average, readers rated quarterbacks 0.3 tiers lower. For instance, 10% of reader votes fell in Tier 5, where three quarterbacks averaged, compared to 2% from experts. All quarterbacks garnered some reader votes for each tier, reflecting a less intensive approach from the online audience than what could be expected from an NFL coach or GM.
This discrepancy reveals reader opinions about perceived overrated quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa ranked highest here. Watson’s contentious past and sporadic game appearances contribute to the reader scores. Rodgers, entering a final season with the Steelers, and Tagovailoa, starting with the Falcons, are seen similarly by fans but are rated lower by readers.
Overall Gaps Indicate Reader Sentiment
These evaluations highlight the gap between reader sentiment and expert analysis, showcasing a distinct perspective on NFL quarterback capabilities. This data reflects the different nuances within fandom, providing insights into how fans view their quarterbacks compared to those assessing them professionally.