South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary: Republican Dynamics and Nancy Mace’s Challenges
Current Standing of Nancy Mace in the Republican Primary
Representative Nancy Mace is lagging behind other Republican contenders in recent polls for the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. With Election Day approaching, most public surveys indicate a divide among Republicans concerning Mace’s ideological shifts and her strained relationship with President Donald Trump. This election serves as a significant indicator of the GOP’s future direction, especially in a traditionally conservative state. The race will determine if South Carolina Republicans will support a candidate like Mace, who has distanced herself from Trump, against his endorsed choice, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.
Republican Candidates Competing for Governorship
Governor Henry McMaster cannot seek a third term, prompting several candidates to join the race to succeed him. Besides Mace and Evette, others include Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson. Newsweek has contacted each campaign for comments via email.
Polls Indicate a Tight Race
With the primary set for June 9, polls show a tight race among the candidates. If no candidate surpasses 50 percent, a runoff election between the top two contenders will occur on June 23. Here are the details from recent surveys:
- Co/Efficient (June 2-4, 879 likely voters, MOE of +/- 3.31 percent)
- The Tyson Group (June 1-3, 500 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.4 percent)
- The Citadel (May 21-31, 600 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.5 percent)
Robert Oldendick, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina, notes that many Republican candidates are competing for similar voters with policies focused on eliminating state income tax and enhancing government efficiency. He added that Evette and Wilson benefit from high name recognition due to their status as statewide officials.
Nancy Mace’s Relationship with Donald Trump
Mace’s previously close relationship with Trump has not helped her campaign. Initially a strong supporter, she served in Trump’s 2016 campaign and secured his endorsement in her 2020 congressional race. However, their relationship soured after Mace criticized Trump following the January 6 Capitol riot. Although she did not vote for impeachment, her comments caused a rift.
Trump later backed Katie Arrington in a bid to unseat Mace in 2022, but Mace managed to secure renomination. By 2023, Mace and Trump appeared to reconcile somewhat, with Mace expressing willingness to support Trump’s policies and endorsing him in January 2024.
Prediction Markets and Potential Outcomes
Prediction markets favor Evette to win the gubernatorial nomination, boosted by Trump’s endorsement on May 29. Evette holds a 77 percent chance on Kalshi and 73 percent on Polymarket. Meanwhile, Mace has a lower probability of winning according to both platforms.
These markets reflect trader sentiment based on polling, fundraising, and candidate developments, yet they do not always predict actual outcomes accurately.
Democratic Prospects in South Carolina
Democrats are hopeful for the 2026 midterms, but South Carolina remains a challenging battleground. Despite national trends, forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the governorship safely Republican. Historical voting patterns show South Carolina as a Republican stronghold, with the last Democratic governor elected in 1998.