Donald Jolly Leads Byron Donalds in Florida Gubernatorial Race, According to Polls

A new poll from Change Research, which leans Democratic, shows Republican Congressman Byron Donalds trailing Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race to become Florida’s next governor. This could represent a positive development for Florida Democrats. They have faced challenges in state elections since 2018, experiencing a consistent shift toward Republican control.

Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, cannot seek reelection in 2026 due to term limits. In 2022, he secured a second term by a margin of nearly 20 percentage points. Republicans continue to expand their voter registration advantage and maintain control over statewide offices.

However, some recent polls suggest a more competitive race than previously anticipated for DeSantis’ replacement. Former President Donald Trump has publicly supported Donalds, stating, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” He emphasized his complete endorsement for Donalds.

“Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”

Trump secured Florida by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, and it’s been over 20 years since a Democrat won the state’s governorship.

Poll Details

The Change Research poll shows Jolly, who switched parties from Republican to Democrat, leading Donalds in a general-election scenario. Jolly focuses his campaign on financial issues such as insurance, housing, and healthcare. In contrast, Donalds presents himself as a conservative successor championing Trump’s agenda and combating illegal immigration.

According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with a slightly higher lead of 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The survey included 1,273 registered voters, with 1,015 indicating likely participation in the 2026 midterm election. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

The poll also revealed Jolly has 94 percent support from Democrats, while Donalds has 77 percent support among Republicans.

Comparative Polls

Another Change Research poll from May indicates Jolly ahead of Donalds, 46 percent to 42 percent. This survey sampled 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 are likely to vote in the midterm election, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

An Emerson College Polling survey conducted at the end of March found Donalds receiving 44 percent support compared to Jolly’s 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided. This poll surveyed 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.