The Intelligence Behind the Strike on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
The February 28, 2026 strike that resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began with critical intelligence from the United States. According to CBS News, the CIA, after months of intelligence gathering shared with Israel, pinpointed Iran’s leadership location, initiating Operation Epic Fury. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair confirmed the operation relied on intelligence provided by the U.S. and Israel. Following the strike, Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones across the Gulf, with interceptors safeguarding the skies above Dubai, Bahrain, and Doha.
This conflict has been termed an intelligence war, concealed by an air campaign, and the decisive intelligence was American. Striking a leader like Khamenei requires knowing his whereabout, timing, company, and executing a strike swiftly. Solving this involves years of intelligence collection rather than a last-minute act. The actual strike was merely the culmination. On February 28, the critical piece — locating the leadership — came from the U.S.
President Trump wrote that America used its intelligence and tracking systems to ensure Khamenei couldn’t escape. This achievement rested on a decade of collaboration with its key ally. Notable events included Mossad’s removal of Iran’s nuclear archive in 2018 and the assassination of physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020. Additional strikes occurred in 2024 and 2025, further demonstrating an internal breakdown in Iranian security.
The 2026 war exemplified intelligence defeating concealment. While in 2023, disciplined operational security allowed weaker forces to hide intentions from capable services, the situation reversed in 2026 when discovery triumphed over concealment.
Iran’s vulnerability stemmed from its surveillance state lacking strong counterintelligence. Internal rivalry between the Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard further weakened its security. Iranian authority, centralized around the supreme leader, increased its susceptibility. Unlike organizations like Hamas, Iran’s concentrated command was a liability, making the regime highly vulnerable to decapitation.
Iran’s current situation shows the repercussions — hundreds have been arrested for alleged spying, continuing repression under the guise of purging spies. This large-scale operation reveals a regime conflicted and paranoid, struggling to identify real threats.
The lesson for the U.S. involves more than military technology. The reliance on intelligence, collection, and human sources — irreplaceable and unmatched resources — played a pivotal role. This capability must be maintained, as it is fragile. A fully penetrated regime will adapt by decentralizing authority and enhancing counterintelligence, assuming compromise.
Future conflicts will likely involve these adaptations. Visible aftermaths of 2026 include interfered Gulf interceptors and Tehran devastation. Yet the defining battle was hidden, fought by unnamed individuals, well before combat operations commenced.
Muhanad Seloom is an assistant professor of intelligence and national security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. He regularly posts on X @MuhanadSeloom. The article reflects his views.