Americans Divided on U.S. Approach to Iran
Americans have differing opinions on whether to support a change in Iran’s regime or pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran. According to the Reagan Institute Summer Survey, 39% favor negotiating a settlement that maintains Iran’s current government. The condition includes verifiable limits on nuclear and missile programs. In contrast, 36% support replacing the current government with one more favorable to the U.S.
An additional 16% prefer the existing government to remain but with reduced military and economic power. About 8% of the participants were undecided. This survey occurred before President Donald Trump and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. This included a 60-day ceasefire and aims to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
The results highlight the challenge Trump faces. He attempts to balance a newly signed agreement with Iran, while people in the U.S. remain split on the policy direction towards Iran.
“We didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened,” Trump stated at the G7 Summit in France.
Political Preferences
Among Republicans, a 2-to-1 preference exists for changing Iran’s government rather than a diplomatic solution. Half of Republican respondents advocate for a government in Iran more aligned with the U.S., compared to 25% supporting a settlement under current Iranian governance.
For MAGA Republicans, 51% support regime change, while 25% choose negotiations. Democrats, in contrast, largely prefer diplomacy. A majority of 52% favor negotiation, whereas 25% back a regime change.
The survey included 1,555 respondents nationwide, conducted from May 26 to June 3, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. It used diverse methods including live telephone interviews and online panels.
Survey Methodology
To reflect the U.S. population accurately, results were weighted using demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. The survey also included an extra sample of 331 MAGA Republicans under age 30, carrying a margin of error of ±5 percentage points.
The Reagan Institute, which advocates for “peace through strength” and American leadership, conducted the survey. Results are significant as Trump defends the new memorandum with Iran as a step toward reducing tension and negotiating Iran’s nuclear program.
This agreement opens a 60-day negotiation window between the U.S. and Iran for a more comprehensive deal. The memorandum touches on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping and allows conditional sanction waivers. Further talks are expected to address contentious issues like the future of Iran’s nuclear program.