Texas GOP Senate Runoff Highlights Trump’s Influence
In Plano, Texas, the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination culminates in a runoff election, with a strong influence from former President Donald Trump. Trump’s late endorsement of State Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term Senator John Cornyn has shifted the dynamics, threatening Cornyn with potential defeat. Cornyn could become the first Republican senator in Texas history to lose the party nomination while in office.
Despite an extensive campaign with allied groups spending nearly $90 million on ads mostly targeting Paxton, Cornyn faces a significant challenge due to Trump’s support. This trend of the former president endorsing candidates loyal to him has been evident in other states like Louisiana, Kentucky, and Indiana. These endorsements have shown Trump’s sustained grip on Republican primary voters. Paxton’s campaign quickly seized the opportunity to capitalize on Trump’s backing, promoting it with ads within 24 hours of the announcement. Cornyn acknowledged the endorsement as impactful but remains committed to the race.
The winner of the Republican primary will compete against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November. Tuesday’s runoffs will also finalize Democratic nominees for U.S. House districts in Dallas, Houston, and a key San Antonio-area seat. Despite Cornyn holding a lead in the initial March primary, he failed to secure a majority, facing a strong opposition from Paxton and other candidates like U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished third. The campaign has been lengthy, marked by negative advertising focusing on personal and ethical issues surrounding Paxton. These include his acquittal in a 2023 impeachment trial involving allegations of extramarital affairs.
Significantly outspent by pro-Cornyn groups since early March, Paxton’s campaign spent $5.9 million compared to their $16.5 million, yet Paxton’s ties with the Trump base in Texas provide a strategic advantage. Trump’s delayed endorsement created ripples in the campaign, while Cornyn’s allies used this to highlight Paxton’s perceived weaknesses in handling specific cases, such as a sexual abuse case in Waco.
Strategists like Tyler Norris suggest that the election’s negative tone might lower voter turnout. This factor could work in Paxton’s favor, considering his appeal to dedicated Trump supporters. Trump’s endorsement highlighted Cornyn as unsupportive during difficult times, echoing a similar stance he took against other candidates like Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky.
Cornyn’s past criticisms of Trump, including suggestions that Trump’s political ambitions are outdated and earlier opposition to his border wall initiative, have influenced Trump’s stance. Despite this, Cornyn maintains his support for Trump’s broader agenda. Some Republican leaders argue that Cornyn would have a stronger showing in general elections, fearing Paxton’s nomination could burden resources in more competitive states, as Democrats aim to gain four Senate seats for majority control.
On the Democratic side, Texas will choose House nominees, such as Rep. Christian Menefee versus Rep. Al Green in the 18th District. This follows a map redraw by the Republican-led Texas Legislature. Both Menefee and Green, backed by their previous electoral successes, vie for recognition in the Houston area. Additionally, former Rep. Colin Allred and U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson are contenders in the Dallas-area 33rd District, following Allred’s Senate campaign withdrawal. Near San Antonio, Democratic leaders focus on ensuring that Maureen Galindo, known for antisemitic remarks, does not win against Johnny Garcia, as this district remains a target despite Republican redistricting efforts.