Potential Growth of Ebola Cases in Central Africa

The Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could reach up to 20,000 cases or more, depending on the swiftness of isolation measures for infected individuals, according to a new analysis by U.S. health officials.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently released a set of scenarios driven by computer models. The scenarios range from 10,000 cases to over 20,000. In a worst-case situation, this could rival the most severe Ebola outbreak in history, the 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic, which led to over 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 fatalities.

Dr. Satish Pillai, the incident manager for the CDC’s Ebola response, expressed concern over such potential devastation without robust public health interventions.

Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center, shared that the modeling confirms initial worries about the outbreak’s trajectory barring increased efforts to halt the spread of Ebola. Nuzzo cautioned against placing heavy reliance on specific numbers, given the challenges of predicting outbreak progression with limited data.

Currently, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reports around 400 confirmed cases, including 63 deaths. Additional undiagnosed or unreported cases are probable, say experts.

Ebola spreads through contact with bodily fluids like vomit, blood, and semen. No specific treatments or vaccines exist for the Bundibugyo virus, driving the current outbreak where the disease often proves fatal.

In May, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency. Some infections may date to February, but initial testing targeted a different Ebola virus type.

Response efforts face challenges due to armed conflict involving Congo’s government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, alongside Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Force attacks. Such violence has displaced people living in affected areas significantly.

Nuzzo indicated earlier this week that the risk of Ebola spreading to the United States appears low. U.S. policies impacting entry, such as banning non-U.S. passport holders or green-card holders from Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan, contribute to minimizing the risk. Travelers undergo health screenings at designated airports.

CDC’s modeling aims to predict future developments based on factors like prior infection and death rates and the efficacy of prompt identification and isolation of infected individuals.

Simulations, based on around 50 deaths and 20% successful isolation of infected persons by late May, suggest Africa may see at least 20,000 cases and 4,000 deaths over three months.

Pillai noted the isolation rate’s actual success is uncertain but deemed lower than desired. Improved isolation rates (50% to 70%) might lower projected cases to approximately 10,000.

Past CDC modeling during the West African Ebola outbreak proved inaccurate. In 2014, CDC’s worst-case scenario estimate exceeded reality, forecasting up to 1.4 million infections.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department is supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is responsible for all content.