Mace Trails in South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary Amid Trump Endorsement
A recent poll by Trafalgar Group shows Representative Nancy Mace lagging behind her opponents in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. This development follows President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, which may impact the race dynamics before the primary election.
Trump’s backing holds considerable influence among GOP voters in South Carolina. It often acts as a pivotal factor in uniting support in a fragmented field.
Current Polling and Campaign Reactions
The survey, conducted from June 2 to June 4, indicates a tight contest without a clear front-runner. The poll was led by Republican pollster Robert Cahaly.
This is what we call a suppression poll. Grassroots are dropping their support of Pam like a hot potato. We think Cahaly just slams his head on a keyboard and puts numbers into a tweet.
Nancy Mace entered the gubernatorial race last August after serving South Carolina’s 1st congressional district since 2021. Initially a leading candidate, the contest has become highly competitive. According to South Carolina’s election rules, if no candidate achieves over 50 percent of the vote, the top two will proceed to a runoff election.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets show Mace having a less than 4 percent chance to secure the Republican nomination, while Evette leads with 68 percent and Wilson at 27 percent. On Polymarket, Mace’s prospects dropped from 45 percent in December to under 5 percent now. Evette’s numbers surged from 30 percent before Trump’s endorsement to 68 percent currently, with Wilson at 24 percent.
The Epstein Files and the Fracture with Trump
The evolving landscape marks a departure from 2024 when Mace and Trump supported each other politically. Mace endorsed Trump’s presidential campaign, and Trump supported her congressional re-election bid, commending her for advocating conservative policies.
Their relationship strained due to Mace’s demand for the release of classified documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Mace, a public survivor of sexual assault, criticized both the Trump administration and the Justice Department over handling the Epstein files. While some GOP allies backed full disclosure, others found the issue politically sensitive. Mace’s stance starkly contrasted with rivals who avoided discussing the topic.
After Trump endorsed Evette, Mace addressed the repercussions, expressing her commitment to transparency and justice on X. She emphasized her refusal to compromise values for an endorsement, asserting that South Carolina needs a governor accountable to the people.
Broader Congressional Fallout
Other lawmakers also faced political fallouts over this issue. Republican Representative Thomas Massie, with Democrat Representative Ro Khanna, led efforts for a vote on the document release. Massie praised Mace, alongside Representatives Lauren Boebert and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, for their advocacy. Although most Republicans later voted to release the files, only Mace, Boebert, and Greene signed the initial petition. Massie noted their substantial political cost.
Fallout included Massie losing his primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. Greene decided against reelection, citing her separation with Trump over Epstein. Boebert risks a Trump-backed challenge after supporting Massie.
What Lies Ahead
South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary will occur on June 9. If candidates fail to secure more than half the votes, the leading two will proceed to a later June runoff.
The race remains tightly contested with many undecided voters. Campaigning is likely to intensify as contenders respond to Trump’s endorsement and other emergent factors shaping the election’s outcome.