Los Angeles Mayoral Race Fundraising and Poll Insights

Spencer Pratt, a candidate for the Los Angeles mayoral election, secured significantly more campaign contributions than other candidates in the latest financial reporting period. Pratt raised approximately $2.72 million between April 19 and May 16. In contrast, the current mayor, Karen Bass, gathered around $283,000 in the same timeframe, according to filings with the Los Angeles Ethics Commission.

City Councilmember Nithya Raman reported collecting roughly $400,000 during this period. This amount includes a $60,000 loan Raman extended to her campaign, as detailed by the Los Angeles Times. Overall, Pratt has accumulated a total of $3.26 million in contributions as of May 16, narrowly outpacing Bass, who has amassed $3.13 million. Raman’s total contributions surpass $931,000.

“Pratt, a reality TV star who stepped into the mayoral race following the loss of his home in the Palisades Fire, has shaken up the contest with a campaign driven by viral videos.”

Pratt criticized Bass for her management of the fire and addressed other issues such as public safety and homelessness. Early voting has commenced ahead of the election on June 2. Pratt’s recent fundraising suggests a strong chance of securing enough votes to proceed to a November runoff. Despite facing challenges in a predominantly Democratic city that has not elected a Republican mayor since 1997, Pratt received backing from President Donald Trump.

What The Polls Say

Polling data from Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics indicates Bass holds the leading position with 30 percent support, up from 20 percent in March. Pratt follows with a 22 percent backing, increasing from 10 percent, while Raman stands third with 19 percent support. The undecided voter portion has significantly decreased from 51 percent in March to 16 percent in May.

The polling was conducted on May 9 and 10, shortly after Bass, Pratt, and Raman participated in a mayoral debate. The survey involved 1,000 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of 3 percent.

Another poll by Tavern Research shows similar trends, with Bass leading at 22 percent, followed by Pratt at 18 percent, and Raman at 16 percent. Initially, 46 percent were undecided; however, this figure reduced to 29 percent upon reevaluation. This poll surveyed 531 likely voters online from May 1 to 4, presenting a margin of error of 6.1 percent.

What the Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets, which are trading platforms reflecting outcome probabilities, sometimes process information faster than polls yet are prone to biases, low liquidity, and speculative fluctuations. Recently, Bass’ odds improved, while Pratt and Raman saw declines.

As of early Monday, Bass is trading at 71 percent, up from 56 percent previously. Pratt’s position is at 22 percent, slightly down from 24 percent, and Raman at approximately 10 percent, reduced from 16 percent. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, shows similar figures; Bass priced at 67 percent, Pratt at 27 percent, and Raman around 7 percent.

What Happens Next

The primary election is scheduled for June 2. If no candidate achieves a majority, the leading two vote-getters will compete in a final election on November 3.