Potential for Tropical Storm Bertha Off U.S. Coast

A low-pressure area off the southeastern U.S. coast may develop into Tropical Storm Bertha as it moves towards Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports a low 10% chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours.

The disturbance remains unorganized, with environmental conditions becoming less conducive for intensification. If named, Bertha would be the second storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC reports the disturbance is moving south and expected to turn west later this week. AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva suggests any tropical development would likely occur on Wednesday or Thursday, marking a crucial period for the system to become a tropical depression or storm.

This would be only the second storm during what NOAA predicts to be a quiet hurricane season. The agency expects eight to 14 named storms with up to three major hurricanes. There is a 55% chance of a below-normal season due to El Niño, which increases wind shear and hinders storm organization.

Strong upper-level winds associated with El Niño disrupt storm formation, reducing the number of hurricanes. Alex DaSilva notes that current wind shear is not strong, but dry air from a cold front impedes development. A heat dome over the Midwest and East Coast exacerbates the dryness, affecting storm growth.

The disturbance will track near the Gulf Stream, offering a chance for development if favorable conditions arise. However, moisture levels are low, so major impacts are unlikely. Rip currents pose the greatest risk from Florida to the Carolinas, starting early Tuesday.

Beachgoers should exercise caution due to increased rip current risks. Meanwhile, the NHC monitors another disturbance in the Pacific with a high development chance within 48 hours.