World Cup Brings Temporary Peace in Mexico Amid Cartel Violence

As host of the World Cup alongside the United States and Canada, Mexico is experiencing a notable decline in cartel-related violence. Security analyst David Saucedo shared with Aristegui Noticias that drug cartels may have informally agreed to a ‘World Cup truce’ during the tournament. Although there is no official evidence of such an agreement, Saucedo noted that prosecutors in cities with heavy cartel presence report a decrease in homicides and violent incidents since the tournament began.

Mexico’s World Cup hosting began on June 11 with a victory against South Africa, and the homicide count that day was 30, the lowest since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed office in October 2024, based on government records. Five days later, the number dropped to 27, marking the lowest in ten years. Cities like Mexico City and Guadalajara, hosting several matches, each had one homicide, while Monterrey, with four matches, reported none.

Saucedo attributes the current calmness to a reduction in law enforcement actions targeting cartel leadership. He explained that arrests or operations against top traffickers could provoke backlash from the cartels during the World Cup.

Earlier this year, in February, the situation was drastically different. The military operation that resulted in the death of cartel leader Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera-Cervantes caused severe violence, with 70 fatalities and incidents of arson. This chaos led to concerns about Mexico’s ability to host World Cup matches. In response, Guadalajara deployed 15,000 security personnel, including National Guard forces, for protection around stadiums.