Trump’s Declining Approval Among Independent Voters

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among independent voters is declining sharply, as evidenced by multiple national polls. This trend could have serious implications for the political landscape leading into the 2026 midterm elections. If independents continue to distance themselves from Trump, it may impact Republicans’ prospects in crucial House and Senate races.

Key Points

• Civiqs tracking data shows Trump’s approval among independents at 30 percent, with disapproval at 63 percent. This results in a net approval of -33, down from -5 at the start of his second term.
• Economist/YouGov poll conducted between May 29 and June 1 reports a net approval of -50 among independents, a significant drop of 46 points from early 2025.
• According to PRRI data, independent favorability fell to 25 percent in May from 35 percent in early 2025.
• An AP-NORC analysis finds that support among independents has decreased to about a quarter from nearly four in ten during the 2024 election period.

Polling Trends

Approval and favorability ratings for Trump among independents have fallen significantly during his second term. Polling data shows a steady decline, not indicative of temporary fluctuation.

Civiqs Longitudinal Data

Civiqs maintains a rolling national tracker based on over 110,000 responses collected from January 2025 to June 2026. At the beginning of the second term, 44 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved (net -5). By June 2026, approval dropped to 30 percent and disapproval rose to 63 percent (net -33). This 38-point swing indicates substantial erosion of support among independents.

Economist/YouGov Record Low

The Economist/YouGov poll series shows intensified decline. In early 2025, independents gave Trump a net approval of -4. By mid-2026, this plummeted to -50. YouGov’s Allen Houston described this as a record low for Trump’s second term and noted that Trump’s net approval among independents is now comparable to how Democrats perceived him during his first term.

AP-NORC Analysis

AP-NORC’s comprehensive analysis aggregates 21 surveys conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 involving 4,836 independents. Initially, about four in ten independents supported Trump. By spring 2026, support had dwindled to approximately one-quarter. Notably, independents without a college degree saw significant declines.

PRRI Insights

PRRI found Trump’s personal favorability among independents dropped from 35 percent in March 2025 to 25 percent by May 2026. This 10-point decline aligns with other data showing consistent negative trends.

Unified Polling Perspective

All four pollsters used different methodologies but showed similar trends. Trump’s approval and favorability among independents have decreased significantly, with most data placing him well below positive net approval margins.

White House Reaction

In response to the polls, the White House emphasized Trump’s 2024 election victory, referring to it as the “ultimate poll.” A spokesperson highlighted Trump’s accomplishments and ongoing efforts to address key issues like job creation, inflation, and housing.

Future Considerations

The persistence of declining support hinges on upcoming political and economic developments. Issues such as inflation, the economy, and foreign policy heavily influence public perception and presidential approval.

With midterm elections on the horizon, the shift in independent voters’ sentiments could be pivotal in determining the outcomes of closely contested races.